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That's an optimistic view, which I've had for about 4-5 years, but I'm growing more concerned that a more pessimistic view would be correct. I have a baked-in assumption that GPUs will keep getting cheaper and faster, to the extent that it's likely just a matter of time before any loser can open a cereal box and get a random toy as a gift that has more compute than necessary to store and run Mythos/Fable, orders of magnitude faster than it is possible for Anthropic executives to run on their private instances right now. In such a future, obviously Mythos-level LLMs can't realistically have their access gated, not unless we believe that Anthropic has some "secret sauce" that makes replicating or even emulating their models impossible without it (which may be the case, but I don't think it is). So free or at least open/easy access to AIs at least as intelligent as Fable seems likely to become near ubiquitous, like how electronic light used to be mind-blowing less than 2 centuries ago but is such a bore now that the average person probably carries like 3 electronic things that make light as a side-effect while barely noticing.
But also, in such a world, presumably
Anthropic'sSpaceX's data centers that Anthropic rents will be that much more powerful, where, e.g. they'll run AI models that are so much more intelligent than Mythos that only having access to Mythos compared to what you could get for paying $100/month to Anthropic for the rest of your life is like choosing to be Forrest Gump-level intelligence in a world where paying a monthly subscription gets you access to Albert Einstein-level intelligence. If the relative gap is large enough, then the absolute increase in access to intelligence to everyone might be swamped out due to loss in positional status.How the political/culture/ideological/religious wars that will be fought around inequality in access to artificial intelligence should be interesting to see, in comparison to the ones fought around inequality in access to money or around inequality in access to natural intelligence.
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