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Honestly man, I had a lot of respect for you and always approach in good faith, part of me still hopes this is some kind of crazy misunderstanding of mistaken identity. When you blocked me you implied I was a Trump supporter or something, which is just confusingly not true. And if smug confidence is a sin, well I guess you've already cast the first stone.
Yes, I've argued this point before on this forum several times against people convinced the frontier labs were losing money even on inference.
No, actually, sating demand does in fact dent profitability of selling a scarce resource even if it only goes from extremely obscenely profitable to merely obscenely profitable, and the projected profitability is what dictates investment levels. A competitor that copies your R&D at a lag shifts your optimal resource allocations from research to buildout optimization. Research is what accelerates the frontier thus Chinese distillations slow acceleration.
> The only reason they're in the red is that they are, indeed, reinvesting tens of billions into scaling compute for R&D and larger-scale training. How much capital do they need to keep accelerating?
This is literally the whole of the argument. Nothing else in this post matters at all.
agreed.
Wait, how? do you mean 2 months of the ability to reap high margins with paused competition?
These are all considerations that people consider carefully when they decide how many trillions of dollars to put into building out datacenters. Dario famously underbuilt in the last cycle on these mundane economic concerns.
On the more important topic though, and you're certainly allowed to only reply to the part of my post you disagree with, but I'm much more concerned with the, clear to me fact, that open weight models are unsafe and nothing can make them safe. The deceleration thing might even be good given this. Even given just mundane uplift I can't seem to get away from the offense/defense equilibrium disruption. Those are heavy dice to roll.
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