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Notes -
That is a good argument.
Sadly, I think that the frontier model training is much more driven by people betting on ASI than merely recouping the costs of training GPT 6 or whatever.
Simply earning money with your model is a proposition similar to the concept of the dollar auction -- anyone can come along, invest twice as much money and build a better model which will leave you without any revenue. (Though in practice, I think that the frontier labs might have some secret sauce apart from "just throw chips at the problem" which gives them a moat, but likely a lot less than what Microsoft used to have in the bad old days.)
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