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Notes -
What do you make of the possibility/propensity for people to change their ideology, either with age, changing life circumstances, or in response to the changing world? I'm an example of someone who would have been your ideological enemy Blue at age 21, but already by early 30s would have been your strong ally (even if not fully 'tribally' baked Red). It seems like culture & ideology are a bit too sticky to assume almost everyone follows that track, but that stereotypical 'maximum leftwing posture in early/mid 20s that peters out' shift can't be uncommon. Or for ideological enemies, do you mainly set your sights on older people who are no longer likely to change?
I tend to mostly agree with your takes, although the way you neatly bucket 'Blues' does sometimes come across like it's a heritable ethnicity, with the die fully cast. Wouldn't a culture war victory look like a nuclear vibeshift where most blues change into reds (sheepishly or zealously, we've seen both psychologies), rather than a civil war with fighting or physical separation? (If you're amenable to the idea that mainstream normie women are largely the ones determining and enforcing social consensus, with many men then trying to follow and appeal to them, this would just look like what's politically 'correct' changing again, as it does). Maybe the argument is that your ancestrally-identical democrat neighbor who grew up reading the same bedtime stories could themselves (or certainly their children) lose their ideological difference and be your identical tribal fellow in a way that cultural immigrants just can't (at scale).
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