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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   24439 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of August 10, 2026

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Well, we've discussed this one before, but my position is still that wanting to pause frontier training is much like wanting to totally disarm every nuclear weapons state. Perhaps it's a noble goal to reduce x-risk in theory, but in practice no great power will ever allow themselves to be disarmed in such a manner

It's more like trying to prevent the development of nukes in the first place, with the upside that centrifuges are only made in a couple places and take a major city worth of electricity to power. And also there's a good chance that enriching the fuel could explode and kill everyone involved.

I do agree the race dynamics are the hard problem but really it's just China and the US in the running, maybe Europe becomes relevant Ina true pause. I think a bilateral treaty is possible. It's not clear the CCP benefits from very strong Ai.

Additionally, the second-order effects of such a goal seem likely to be profoundly negative

If everyone is dead then there are no benefits to enjoy.

I don't think you're really addressing the point I was trying to make in the original post, which is that it is closed-weights that is advancing the frontier, and thus it's much more likely that it is mistakes or malfeasance derived from closed-weight model access that is going to cause the feared harms.

I don't disagree that the closed labs are on the frontier and at current trajectory are the likely sources of x risk. Your previous post implied fingers were only pointing at the open labs. That's not true, safety people are very consistent that the closed labs must pause. It's just that at the same time for alignment to work the weights basically have to be closed. So there isn't any future for labs releasing open weights all that much longer if the concerns about alignment hold and we don't want to all die.

Open weights advocates tend to have this victim complex. They accuse every pieces of legislature of targeting opens weights even when they're explicitly exempted or aren't operating at the level of flops that would get them regulated. It's quite strange.

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