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Notes -
I don't know how you so consistently misunderstand my position.
I'm pretty careful to alyways point out that if the systems don't get much better then my diagnoses of doom doesn't hold. My p(doom) is only ~20%, which just seems like plenty chance to be concerned with.
If GAs are just fable or even mythos in a box then sure, a neat product. The first thing I did when llama first released its open weights was buy a macbook with enough unified memory to run it locally.
If you think we're not going to get meaningful recursive self improvement and an intelligence explosion then the big difference is that you think the pause I advocate for will basically happen naturally. It's a fine thing to believe, I've always thought it was plausible there's an end to easy scaling, although I thought that several massive scaling improvements ago and have no confidence in anyone's ability to predict when an end might come.
Why wouldn't you support a pause if you think the models aren't getting much better from training anyways? Do you think mythos but cheaper tokenomics is basically as smart as it gets?
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