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Notes -
Based on what?
The Houthis reportedly flew in IRGC commanders and weapons just last month and by all indications are stronger and more aggressive than they were before the war. At the moment of writing they basically launched a war with the Saudis and are attempting a major ground offensive against their local proxies, something that would have been inconceivable even a few years ago. Hezbollah transitioned from a pre-war "ceasefire" where Hezbollah ceased and Israel fired to a "ceasefire" where Hezbollah periodically responds by obliterating IDF troops with drones and Beirut is explicitly off limits to Israeli strikes. The Iraqi government has been pretending to "roll up" the PMFs for over a decade but in practice this just means that some of the smaller pro-Iranian militias get absorbed by the bigger pro-Iranian militias; Iraq has always had to play this game because their military is dominated by pro-Iranian Shiites and their oil income runs through the Federal Reserve but the idea they'll ever side with the US over Iran is ludicrous. Did you see Khamenei's funeral at Karbala?
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