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Not if he's instantly replaced by even more dedicated hardliners who believe the exact same thing.
Do they believe the exact same thing? It doesnt seem so to me. The IRGC strikes me as a military outfit before a religious one. Khomeni was primarily a cleric. Dealing with a military junta seems leagues better than an theocracy, even if they both hate america.
Meh. The IRGC and clerics are fairly interactive with one another, the former taking more dictation from the latter. I think the more basic point is that from Iran’s perspective, the geostrategic logic is the same regardless of who is in power; because that doesn’t alter the security dilemma you’re caught in.
Ok to engage in realpolitik / geostrategic logic the first assumption is that states are rational actors acting in their own self interest. I dont think khomeni was a rational actor, he was an islamic fundamtalist. I think the junta giving direction to the clerics would be a much better situation, if that is actually the case.
What’s your evidence he wasn’t acting in their national self-interest?
I actually got Khamenei and Khomeini mixed up, but I don't think it changes much as they were both islamic fundamtalists who did stupid things.
Going back to Khomeini, the hostage crisis. Which Khamenei strongly supported. What did they get kidnapping a bunch of diplomats? They got to feel great sticking it to the great satan? What did they lose? They pissed off a superpower who then donated a bunch of military equipment to Iraq, a country that invaded them like a year after Iran pissed off its old superpower ally. To quote la wik:
If Iran had wanted to just throw of the American yoke and not been so annoying about they'd be in much better shape. Look at the Vietnamese - they kicked the US out, they did it without Ho Chi Minh yelling "death to America" for 50 years, and today in 2026 the US and Vietnam get along just fine, we're even somewhat friendly. But of course Iran can't help themselves, paramount is defeating the great satan. This is the general theme - they just can't help themselves.
Another example - the Fatwa against Salman Rushdie. What does Iran get from this? I can't think of anything but to satisfy some internal muslim purity demand. What did they lose? A decade of sour relations with the UK and Europe. And they made him famous, and he sold a ton of books.
More recently - some girl doesn't wear her hijab right so they kill her. What does Iran gain from this? International condemnation, international sanctions, half a year of internal protests where they shoot hundreds more. Shocking that Iran's most educated and (what would be) their most productive citizens don't want to live in that envornment. Shocking their elite human capital doesn't want to live in an islamic theocracy. Really serves the national interest to scare those people off, but hey - at least allah is happy.
Honestly there are like a million things like this of Iran being stupid because they're led by islamic fundamentalists. Is it in Iran's interest to keep picking fights with Israel? What exactly is the root of that conflict, Iran's security needs? Or because they don't like da Joos? How exactly is their nuclear weapons program going? They endure decades of economic isolation, for what? Where are the nukes? Did they stick it to the great satan with the nukes, or did they get no nukes and get bombed? There are ways to defend yourself without making yourself an international pariah, but they can't help but fund every terrorist org in existence. Like oh my god, shocking they get regularly bombed.
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