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How did this work out for the nuclear industry in the US? This is absurd, the federal government lately is not in a "give a couple operators a monopoly" state, it's in a "destroy any industry that makes the voters angry" state. The idea that this is a positive EV play is plainly just cynicism for the sake of cynicism. These are not companies whose major competitive advantage is app install base, they're companies whose major competitive advantage is billions of dollars in R&D in an industry where catchup mechanics are brutal with overseas competitors that are not at all subject to preferable regulations. There's just no actual way this works out to being a good EV play over pushing the frontier and hoping for a moonshot. Even if all the major players in all the major labs weren't on record for over a decade with these exact same concerns well before it was clear anyone was going to make any money in this industry this would be a completely retarded plan. "establish a regulatory regime where every company that could have plausible fronted the capital to compete has already done so" is not anything like a real cartel. What are they, afraid of netflix's entry into the sphere?
What are billions of dollars of R&D worth if they give you no moat?
I think you are wrong, that models are commodities, and that market penetration is all that matters. Along with the hardware.
And if the catchup is certain, and you were unfortunate enough to be the first mover and first spender, then you can either take your chances trying to get a lot more money to try again, or you get the government to ban the people that undercut your margins. Preferably both.
It'll maybe be enough to save Mistral.
The minimal moat they give you is the table stakes. There's no benefit to raising the bar for entry when everyone who was ever going to pay them has already ante'ed up. Like putting the condom on after sex.
Not retail. Not government. The biggest marks are still out there. So the con isn't over yet.
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