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Notes -
In every rational market the reaction of prices to news doesn't hinge on "is this news good" versus "is this news bad", but rather on "is this news better than expected" versus "is this news worse than expected". This was their best v3 launch so far, even aside from it being their first operational launch, but I'm not surprised if it's not the best by as far as the market was expecting. Flight 12 had 2 engine shutdowns on ascent, but massive (dozens of) relight failures on the boostback and landing burns, Flight 13 had an aborted ascent but then had a fine ascent on their second try and had slightly-less-massive (boostback shutdown when only 80% done, fewer but still too many landing burn engine failures) failures on the relights. Flight 14 had only recoverable failures (2 engines shutdown on ascent, 4 relights aborted on boostback and landing), but it still had enough failures that they didn't risk completing the full planned testing phase of the mission, and I wouldn't be surprised if investors had been hoping for a little better than that. There's now a good chance that SpaceX won't even try for another catch on Flight 15, of ship or of booster much less both.
Getting satellites into orbit is huge, though. They're still not getting the payload margins they want (they launched 26 Starlink v3s from a ship that's supposed to be able to do 60 eventually), but what they did get to orbit is roughly 3 times the mass and 10 times the additional bandwidth capacity of a Falcon 9 Starlink launch, which is a pretty nice start.
IMHO the biggest question right now is cadence. They've been doing v3 Starship launches every 2 months since Flight 12, but before this flight they were talking about NET October 19 for Flight 15 and (in a "super provisional" schedule) October 30 for Flight 16, the first Starship launch from Florida. I'm sure those will be delayed, but I'm hoping it'll be delays of weeks rather than months.
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