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Notes -
Some of this seems off to me.
"Diesel and gasoline are still stymied, but, mostly, because Iranian exports are being blockaded by the US." I don't think Iran has ever been a significant exporter of refined products (if anything historically it's been a significant importer do to lack of refining capacity though I think pre-war it was improving in this measure). Damage to refineries in Saudia Arabia / UAE and logistics disruptions or the like would seem more likely?
I'm surprised the oil is flowing so well, a lot can change, but it was only 10 days ago that Saudi Arabia declared Force Mejure on some of it's European contracts and said it wouldn't be able to make October deliveries (some Saudi fed European refineries with longer term contracts are slated to get 0 barrels of their contracted oil delivery in October). This is the kind of thing that's keeping prices (and prices of refined products) high. The Saudi East-West pipeline is still only at 50% after being hit and shut-down a few weeks ago (sounds like repairs are going faster then expected, original reporting was that it might be as much as 6 weeks to get things flowing again, so maybe the Europeans will get some of their Oct. oil after all). This kind of vulnerability though is keeping folks nervous.
I don't think the Iranian government is unified on the issue (indeed this has been part of the problem with the previous MOU etc.). Some parts of the Iranian government want peace now, others don't.
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