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Notes -
On 1st January 2026, the United States operated a naval base in Bahrain. As long as they remain unable to do so, the Gulf is contested.
On 1st January 2026, the public position of the government of the United States was that the Iran no longer had a functioning nuclear programme - Trump claimed to have destroyed it in 2025. Before Trump started escalating against Iran back in his first term, the agreed position of Iran, the United States, Russia and China was that Iran would not enrich uranium beyond reactor grade, with a verification process in place. I think a non-nuclear-for-now Iran is entirely consistent with status quo ante for various values of status quo ante.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. America has not lost. America has not won. Iran has not lost. Iran has not won. This is what a draw looks like. It is the nature of a drawn war that under all likely scenarios for a negotiated peace before the midterms, both America and Iran are worse off than they would be if they had not fought. This is not a tabletop wargame where you can work out who "won" an indecisive battle by counting up the point values of the destroyed units.
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