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Frontier models are definitely a form of evidence just not proof. I think it'd be fair to call their position the null hypothesis from which to argue from, not infallible by any means but if you disagree you should have a reason. And the response you got from claude barely disagreed with MK.
Not in general, and certainly not for culture war issues. That's handing a gigantic unearned advantage to any political positions aligned with LLM biases, which are well documented.
Yes, in the same way that everything is evidence. But that doesn't make their opinion valuable when arguing stuff here.
If we're arguing over some factual point, e.g. "are tomatoes a vegetable?", it might make sense to invoke an LLM's response (though linking to an actual source is probably better). But when we're arguing over some high-level subjective thing (e.g. "who broke more norms, Biden or Trump?") then going "Claude agrees with me that Trump is worse!" is not useful evidence.
The point of this place is to actually discuss things, make arguments, and defend positions; not to invoke an LLM's opinion as an authority.
mkc said that prediction markets were the best predictor.
Claude said they are not the best predictor.
If mkc believes prediction markets are very good, that's fine. Calling them the most accurate is a deliberately strong (maximally strong) claim. Words do actually mean things. You don't get to make the strongest form of your claim for convenience, then swap it out for a weaker claim when "disproven".
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