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Notes -
We're social animals so there's lots of evolutionary utility from being able to predict other people's actions and accurately modeling other people's internal states would be helpful for that.
Sure I'm not big on metaphysics. I think labels are about communicating useful information not cosmic essences. But I think in most cases the useful information to communicate is the social role a person is presently occupying not their birth sex. I think trans inclusive language in medical contexts is pretty dumb because the anatomical details are relevant there, but in most social contexts expected presentation and mannerism are the relevant content of the gendered label.
I disagree - in my experience, trans people tend to act in ways that confirm and pattern-match to their birth sex, with transbians being some of the most "malebrained" people I have ever interacted with. When I try to model the behaviour of trans people, I ignore their gender identity and operate on the basis of what they were assigned at birth, because that approach generates far more accurate predictions (with the exception of same-sex attracted trans people, who tend to be closer to their target gender). That understanding also makes for good predictions - if I see a trans person talking about computer programming, striped socks, slice of life anime, Final Fantasy XIV and making threats of physical/sexual violence against feminists, I think I can make a pretty good guess as to their assigned gender at birth.
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