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Notes -
I looked a source up, ignore the tweets, the picture with the graph is from the Economist:
https://twitter.com/NxlAnglo/status/1616874516566736900
You are right, Jewish fertility are astonishingly stable if one looks at the last 40 years instead of zooming into recent trends. In the 90s secular fertility also dipped under 2.0, so is not a new thing. But 10 years ago it was again slightly above.
The discrepancy between the normalcy of 3 kids families and a fertility rate of a third less, is I guess because childless women are less visible? Maybe they also emigrate?
This website (that I found via Google and don't know anything else about, so no clue re reliability) claims childless rate in Israeli Jewish women is only 6.4% (in a sample of women aged 45-60)
https://www.taubcenter.org.il/en/research/israels-exceptional-fertility/
That only gets us from 3 to 2.8 or so
But for example if 44% of women have 3 kids, 30% have 2, and the remaining non-childless have 1, we'd get reasonably close to 2.1, while still having 3 kids be the plurality most common number. (in practice I'm cheating since I'm excluding 3+, which obviously also exists although IME is pretty rare in secular circles. Whatever, it's just a general example.)
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