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Notes -
While there is a religious Confucianism that expands on his approval of religious ritual and rites (he having lived in a period of widespread animist belief), Confucius himself was (and the Confucian classics more generally are) quite humanistic. Essentially all instruction and rhetoric is based on the physical; references to the supernatural are vague and nonspecific; and the few references to 天命 (usually translated in most contexts to Mandate of Heaven) in the Analects are moreso appeals to some sort of spiritual/natural/moral law (as you noted).
I suppose you could say it’s spiritual in that sense, but given the teachings are entirely preoccupied with human and not divine action, and the classics themselves are uninterested in discussing the supernatural beyond acknowledging the native animism and ancestor worship of the time, …I guess it walks like a duck, swims like a duck, but clucks like a chicken?
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