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Small-Scale Question Sunday for April 30, 2023

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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I'm sure they are, but your premise was not that they are worse, but rather that they are "awful." That's not the same thing!

All they need to be is worse to raise the question of why people don't move out of them when there are affordable alternatives.

Do you have data re jobs?

These suburbs are within commute distance of major metros. I think it's safe to say there are jobs galore, and I won't believe you if you claim to doubt it.

And, again, if prices are low in those places, that can only be because 1) supply is high; or 2) demand is low. Based on realtor.com listings, I don’t see much evidence of the former, though maybe there is evidence elsewhere. If the latter is true, then those places must be undesirable for some reason.

I agree! That's why I'm asking. But the consistency of this phenomenon across metros seems to demand an explanation beyond some idiosyncrasy of one place.

And yet the Zillow current listings are much higher.

You're right, and that is curious. While I would expect listings to be a bit more valuable than the median home value, simply because nicer ones are more likely to be for sale, the disparity here is too great to be comfortable with that explanation. But while I don't know enough about that particular market to hazard any guesses, I will say that this is one thing that doesn't seem to generalize to other metros' white suburbs. A few more examples:

  • Greenfield, Indiana (20 miles east of Indianapolis, 96% white) has a Zillow median value of $244k, there are many homes listed for less than that.

  • Indianola, Iowa (20 miles south of Des Moines, 95% white) has a Zillow median value of $272k with many homes listed for less than that.

  • Pretty much all the suburbs of Cincinnati are ~95% white, and there are plenty of non-dilapidated homes for <$250k.

But the consistency of this phenomenon across metros seems to demand an explanation beyond some idiosyncrasy of one place.

Who said anything about idiosyncrasies of one place? The access to jobs issue could easily be common to all.

Here is another problem: It looks like currently about 72% of whites are homeowners but only 43% of blacks are. The Greater St. Louis area is 77% white and 18% black. So, if my math is correct, one would expect a place that is almost all homeowners -- which I think describes the places highlighted on the map -- to be about 88% white. That is little different than several of the places onthe map, and for others, you are essentially asking, why are these places 95% white instead of 88%? A pretty small discrepancy, perhaps so small that it is not worth wondering about, and one which could easily be explained by the fact that most urban black people dont live in awful neighborhoods.

That doesn't really address the question, it just changes it to "why are whites more likely to be homeowners". It's not straightforwardly obvious to me why Hispanics and blacks would prefer to rent rather than own.

That doesn't really address the question, it just changes it to "why are whites more likely to be homeowners".

Yes, that is my point: The initial conundrum that you present does not seem to be a conundrum at all, at least based on the initial evidence you presented.

It's not straightforwardly obvious to me why Hispanics and blacks would prefer to rent rather than own.

Who says that they prefer to rent? It is hardly surprising that Hispanics and blacks have lower rates of home ownership, given their lower income and lower median age. They would have lower rates of home ownership even if they were equally desirous of owning.