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Notes -
That's a more interesting perspective! Do you have any guess on how it plays out? I think part of where I'm coming from is that the aesthetic strikes me as so ridiculous that it's apt to undermine the position being held, with people that are somewhat agnostic on the underlying positions looking at Zephyr and getting the feeling that this isn't really all that consistent with the position that trans women are women. Many people have now hardened their positions (although I suppose those have changed substantially in just a five or ten year period), but I get the impression that there are quite a few fence-sitters that are amenable to humoring people in their desired gender, but might have a tough time with this.
Of course, I see that my own position has crystalized and isn't likely to represent what other people are seeing, which is why I asked in the first place.
I think short term, Zoey probably wins out. They might not win the law suit, but they'll have a victory in PR and their career regardless.
I think long term, the trans issue is probably losing for the left. Trans people are usually(albeit not always) physically ugly, and physical ugliness does not do well in politics. Gay men care a lot more about their aesthetics and actually looking good than a lot of trans women I think. Drag queens do care about their aesthetics though, and I'd expect eventually end up in a position like beauty pageants- not cared about too much by wider society, and the child ones considered creepy.
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I don't really know how it will play out, but personally the situation reminds me of Wendy Davis' 2013 filibuster of an abortion ban in the Texas senate. This made her a darling of the Texas Democratic party, rocketing her to the gubernatorial nomination in 2014 where she lost badly to Abbot and faded into obscurity. Given that Montana is a red state, I don't see Zephyr being viable as a statewide candidate, so I would predict a similar type of outcome here. But who knows.
Montana is a red state but they've shown themselves to be more moderate than Texas. Jon Tester still represents them in the Senate and Steve Bullock was the governor until recently, and they legalized recreational marijuana. That being said, these are both moderate to conservative Democrats, and I don't think Zephyr fits that bill. The upshot is that she won't even be able to win a primary there, because when the state party thinks they have a chance of winning, they actually care to have an electable candidate.
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