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Culture War Roundup for the week of May 1, 2023

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Whatever happened to economists discounting future value? Many people are riddled with debt because they absolutely need the latest Iphone or a shiny new car. Why would they consume less and hoard money if products were going to get slightly cheaper next year?

First off, these people aren't buying anything like that on credit during a deflationary spiral because the banks are worried enough that they'll be able to pay off their existing debt (which is worth more now) let alone buy something now that's going to be worth less in a year. In a recession, luxuries and positional goods are usually the first sectors to take a hit. Second, this kind of spending has a relatively small impact on the economy at large. A bunch of idiots buying iPhones they can't afford is a drop in the bucket compared with a business that cuts back on purchasing after the financial people tell them that they can save 5% if they can hold out another 6 months, which they can because nobody is ordering anything anyway.

And why hasn't this happened in electronics, where the price of memory or processing power falls very rapidly?

Because that's the result of increasing productivity and not of processing power. If the price falls because the company is able to produce it for a lower cost and passes on the savings in a competitive market it's much different than if the company is forced to sell the product for below cost because the market is unwilling to pay the price the company anticipated due to a drop in the money supply.

The issue is deflation in a recession, only then do you have problems.

Any significant deflation almost always accompanies a recession. We had slight deflation around 2015 but few people noticed. If we had the kind you could notice we'd be in a recession. When prices go down companies can't get as much money for what they sell. Some companies may be able to hang in there as normal but others are going to be more sensitive to the market and will have to cut fixed costs somewhere. If the company has debt that's a fixed cost that's not easy to get rid of. It's much easier to either cut pay or, more likely, lay people off. And layoffs and pay cuts across wide swaths of the economy mean that consumers can't afford to buy goods and services, which means further price decreases, and the spiral continues. SOme companies go out of business entirely, and accordingly, fewer people are willing to invest because the risk is too high. Hence, companies that are in trouble can't find investment capital to stay afloat and are more likely to fail. The cycle only ends after a bottoming out period, or with significant financial stimulus that may or may not be effective. Inflationary price increases are tough for consumers to swallow but they generally don't come with the knock-on effects of unemployment so the Fed tends to err on the side of a little inflation.