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More murders (higher homicide rate) should equal more time spent in prison (therefore higher prison costs, in a rich society squeamish about the death penalty). Accordingly, all else equal the US should spend 6 times more of its gdp on incarceration than western europe (instead of 0.5% : 0.2%, 2.5 : 1). Policing is a separate issue. I am arguing for longer sentences, which does not require more police. As Gary Becker says: “maximize the fine and minimize surveillance. “
I see. I misunderstood and thought when you said " it’s clear we spend too much resources monitoring and judging crime," that you meant we spend too much on policing.
Why 6x more? As I understand it, US crime rate other than homicide isn't that much higher than those countries, and homicide arrests make up a very small percentage of violent crime, let alone all crime.
I think the comparison is fairer if you just take europe's big four : germany 0.8 france 1.3 UK 1.1 italy 0.5 compared to US 6.4 , hence the approximation six to one.
Due to it being precisely recorded, as well as its inherent larger impact than other forms (loss of life), homicide rate is a good proxy for the damage crime as a whole inflicts on a society.
I still don't get where you get 6-1.
Homicide rate might well be a good proxy for the damage caused by society. but what does that have to do with how much it costs to incarcerate those convicted of homicide, versus those convicted of other crimes?
Average out the numbers (0.8 + 1.3 + 1.1 + 0.5) / 4 = 0.925 . Then 6.4/ 0.925 was appromixated to 6 to 1. You could weigh the big 4's values by population, but they're pretty close, and then 6.4/ 0.925 is in fact far closer to 7 to 1, but I try to approximate to my opponent's benefit for good faith.
If damage amount X (correlated to homicide rates) is inflicted on a society, it should correspond to Y years in prison. And X/6 should result in Y/6 years in prison.
But I don't understand why you are averaging those numbers.
If the US incarcerates 600 murderers per 100,000 people and France incarcerates 100 murderers per 100,000 people, the cost of incarceration in the US will NOT be 6x the cost in France, unless the US also incarcerates 6X as many robbers and other felons. It will be higher, but not 6X higher.
Eg: This says that in 2019 (I am skipping 2020 because I don't know how COVID releases affected the numbers) 163,000 of 1.2 million prisoners were in jail for non-negligent homicide. Were the homicide numbers only 27,000 (1/6), the total would still be 1,060,000. So the hypothetical US with the same murder rate as France spends only 13% more, not 6X as much.
But I said homicide rate was a proxy for crime as a whole, and you appeared to accept that. That means for every murder there are close to 20 rapes, 35 aggravated assaults, etc , all else equal, in both france and the US. Therefore 6x the incarceration.
Now the US does not have a recorded 6 times the rate of rape (and assault etc) of the big four (it's 2x for rape) but as I said those numbers are far less reliable than homicide numbers . A more violent society might have a less expansive defintion of rape and assault than a less violent one, and the people in it might report less crimes etc, while there is no way to fudge the numbers on homicide, so that ratio is privileged. That’s the argument. However, as the recorded ratio is nowhere near 6x on the other crimes, I grant that 6x criminality, therefore 6x the incarceration costs, might be too much.
You said that homicide was a good proxy for the damage caused by crime as a whole, not that it is a good proxy for the number of crimes as a whole. I took your claim to be merely a reference to the fact that a homicide causes more damage than a robbery, or perhaps even 20 robberies. There is a reason that I said "but what does that have to do with how much it costs to incarcerate those convicted of homicide, versus those convicted of other crimes?"
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