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Notes -
Let's take a look at Detroit which annually has about 50 murders per 100,000 people.
Let's assume that 90% of the murders in Detroit are committed by men between 15 and 30. For Detroit, this group is around 70,000 people, or around 11% of the city's population.
So this group of 70,000 young men commits about 280 murders a year. Let's assume that the average murderer kills 2 people, leaving 140 murderers per year out of the group of 70,000.
Over 15 years, this would mean that the cohort of 70,000 produces 2,100 murderers.
By age 30, about 3% of Detroit's men will have committed homicide. The chance of being a homicide victim is probably even higher. These are not small and rare numbers we're talking about. If a rapper from one of these areas is bragging about killing people, it's not outlandish that they are telling the truth.
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