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Culture War Roundup for the week of August 14, 2023

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Okay, think of the women and children first in the life boat in terms of "if fewer than 50% of people pick the blue pill, everyone dies" (in the original, I'm told) or "all the blue pills die, the red pills live".

Your choice there would be "if there aren't enough women and children to fill 50% or more of the places in the life boats, then they all stay behind while all the men get to take up the places". In that case, making it contingent on hitting a particular number leaves the risk of failure. In that case, "women and children first" (the blue pill) is a death sentence while "every man for himself" (red pill) would be fairer, as there's a chance at least some women and children could grab seats first. But the red pill isn't even that, it's "line up and everyone gets a seat in safety".

But what about the dumbasses who didn’t line up, lost balance, and fell into the water, do I rescue them?

I should have been clearer, I don’t think the game-theoretical minutiae are all that important. I’m trying to explain that the hero reflex is hard to get over, and yes, I’m picking red pill over blue, but the blue has an allure that shouldn’t leave Roko scratching his head.

Edit: reading over your exploration of the titanic example again though I am wondering if “boats have a better chance of survival with a man on board” would be an interesting twist on this question.

Blue only has an allure if you have the mindset to think of the scenario in terms of "being heroic" rather than "which is the sensible choice?"

It sounds like you’re throwing on some spin there but apart from that, I agree, in fact I thought that’s what I said