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Culture War Roundup for the week of August 28, 2023

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But you're right to point out that the important thing here is the change, the increase - why wasn't this as big a problem thirty years ago?

Wait, in the Senate? Did you never hear of Strom Thurmond?

The Senate is a bizarre institution, and extrapolating…anything…from an N=100 dataset is folly. Once you’re in the Senate, it takes a LOT to get you out of the Senate, as seen from this list. There’s only 2 Senators from each state, and once you’re in you immediately accumulate a huge amount of power but then also pretty much vote along party lines, and unless you do something truly wildly insanely wrong, your state party has no particular reason to kick you out.

extrapolating…anything…from an N=100 dataset is folly

So if you tossed a coin 100 times and it landed heads 98 times, you would be agnostic about whether it was biased?

Did you never hear of Strom Thurmond?

Sure. Hence "why wasn't this as big a problem", not "why wasn't this a problem". 30 years ago 6% of Congress was over 70; when Thurmond retired it was 8%; when I was goggling at Feinstein it was 18%; now it's 23%.

extrapolating…anything…from an N=100 dataset is folly

The House is a bit more data, and the secular trend in Congress as a whole seems to overwhelm low-sample-size jitter. I guess we'd expect a ton of temporal auto-correlation, though, so maybe the explanation is as simple as "we're in the period after demographics gave big opportunities to Silent Generation and Baby Boomer politicians but before senescence pushes them out"?