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Culture War Roundup for the week of October 2, 2023

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So Newsom has to choose someone who 1) is a solid Democrat and 2) has absolutely no political base within California for any ambitions.

Except that the news story I read about it made a point that she was not barred from running in the proper election. So while I get why Newsom didn't appoint Lee (who seems to be spitting feathers over this), it's because out of the three Representatives going for the seat (Lee, Schiff and Porter) if he picks one, he's going to piss off the other two, and he doesn't need that kind of in-fighting in California. Especially if he has ambitions himself for the presidency in 2028.

Maybe she doesn't have ambitions and/or a local power base, so that's why he didn't put any limits on it, she's not a risk to him while on the other hand elevating a pro-abortion fundraiser will give him that all-important 100% rating from NARAL for the presidential campaigning:

California Gov. Gavin Newsom will appoint EMILY’s List President Laphonza Butler to fill the seat of the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein, elevating the head of a fundraising juggernaut that works to elect Democratic women who support abortion rights, according to a person familiar with the decision.

...The announcement was expected to come Monday, and an adviser to the governor, Anthony York, told POLITICO that Newsom is making his appointment without putting limitations or preconditions on his pick running for the seat in 2024. That means Butler could decide to join the sprawling and competitive field of Democratic contenders seeking to succeed Feinstein, with special elections now layered on top of the March primary and November runoff.

Except that the news story I read about it made a point that she was not barred from running in the proper election.

She can run, but she would lose. Even if she somehow miraculously did find a way to run a competitive campaign, the point is that no one in the CDP even slightly believes that Newsom chose her thinking she could win an actual election. It'd be hard for Newsom to choose a less electable candidate intentionally (especially given that, until she establishes residency, she's not even eligible to run). Hence, no bad blood.

As far as her Emily's List work, I agree it's relevant, but with a different mechanism than a quid pro quo; NARAL won't care one way or another about this appointment come next Presidential election cycle. The real reason is that she's deeply ensconced in Democratic machine politics: those are her coworkers, friends, even her partner. Defecting in some unpredictable way would be far too costly to her professional and personal lives, so Newsom believes that she's reliable (and more pertinently, so does everyone else, so on the off chance she does go rogue no one will hold it against him).

I can see why Newsom picked her, she's all upside for him. But I can also see why Barbara Lee is furious about this, because this would be the perfect bedding-in for her in the seat she's wanted for ages, and then she'd have an incumbency advantage going into the primary proper. But if Newsom did that, given that Lee seems to be not guaranteed to win the primary, hence the other two going are strong enough in the party, then he'd piss off two other party members who might cut up rough later (and get their supporters to cut up rough) about playing favourites.

Tricky balancing act: has Lee enough clout to damage him if/when he goes for the nomination in 2028, or will Butler owe him a big enough favour that she can throw the women's and black women's vote behind him?