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Notes -
What are the odds you think McHenry will just eventually becoming a permanent speaker by default in absence of anyone being able to scrape up a real coalition? I've heard people float Stefanik as a compromise candidate but haven't heard anything out of her indicating she's interested.
Any numerical estimate I would give would be low confidence so I'll skip that. I know inertia can be a powerful thing and I don't really see a path for any Republican to 217. Assuming the resolution to empower McHenry only lasts through January I think it's pretty unlikely. I can see why Democrats vote for such an outcome now to avoid a shutdown but don't see why they would continue to do so. Probably at least five Republicans agree? Or maybe McHenry becomes a de facto compromise candidate since they can't agree on anyone else and he already has the job. Probably it depends a lot on what happens with McHenry as Speaker. Can you motion to vacate the Speaker Pro Tempore the same way you could the Speaker? I have no idea.
The latest from their closed door session today seems to be a complete lack of clear backing for anything at all, supporting Jordan, supporting anyone else, or even temporarily empowering McHenry.
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