naraburns nihil supernum
2yr ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
You're missing the point. Obviously, Israel has existing plans on the shelf for invading Gaza. Just as I am sure they have existing plans on the shelf for invading the West Bank. And I am sure they have wargamed both many times.
The point is that step one of the plan is certainly calling up reserves, massing troops, pre-invasion aerial attacks to degrade Hamas capacity to defend itself, etc, etc. It isn't "chase Hamas into Gaza at a time dictated by Hamas, using only the troops that happen to be available at that time ," which was OP's proposal.
Fair enough. "Preparation" vs. "Planning", with a lot in one word. Sagan knows that even the US has been writhing a bit with its own planning bureaucracy to get it out of a mindset of, "First, we're going to take three months to call up troops and materiel, then we're going to take six months to ship it all to somewhere near theater (and magically not have to fight to get it there), then we'll like hang out and bomb 'em for a month before anything kicks off." Perhaps this will be an object lesson that helps a variety of countries get that out of their system in the same way that it seems to have kicked up their concern with sUAS into overdrive (even above what happened in Nagorno-Karabakh and the ongoing in Ukraine). If you don't have legit ass-kicking plans that can be put into significant motion on a short fuse, you might pay a significant price.
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Notes -
You're missing the point. Obviously, Israel has existing plans on the shelf for invading Gaza. Just as I am sure they have existing plans on the shelf for invading the West Bank. And I am sure they have wargamed both many times.
The point is that step one of the plan is certainly calling up reserves, massing troops, pre-invasion aerial attacks to degrade Hamas capacity to defend itself, etc, etc. It isn't "chase Hamas into Gaza at a time dictated by Hamas, using only the troops that happen to be available at that time ," which was OP's proposal.
Fair enough. "Preparation" vs. "Planning", with a lot in one word. Sagan knows that even the US has been writhing a bit with its own planning bureaucracy to get it out of a mindset of, "First, we're going to take three months to call up troops and materiel, then we're going to take six months to ship it all to somewhere near theater (and magically not have to fight to get it there), then we'll like hang out and bomb 'em for a month before anything kicks off." Perhaps this will be an object lesson that helps a variety of countries get that out of their system in the same way that it seems to have kicked up their concern with sUAS into overdrive (even above what happened in Nagorno-Karabakh and the ongoing in Ukraine). If you don't have legit ass-kicking plans that can be put into significant motion on a short fuse, you might pay a significant price.
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