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DEI is bad generally, but it's not even close to being decisive here. The problem was the US let its DIB atrophy during the 90s to 2010s, and the US had a massive turn away from manufacturing towards service jobs.
Besides Victoria Nuland and John McCain visiting during the events, the Maidan was almost entirely a grassroots Ukrainian movement. Every time I've pointed this out the pro-RU side has retorted with unfalsifiable narratives of the CIA being behind everything, effectively saying nothing in the world ever happens without the CIA having a hand in it. If that's the way you're going then we'll have to agree to disagree.
It's easier than that: whichever side has their troops on the land of the other side is the aggressor. The US was definitely the aggressor in Iraq + Afghanistan, and Russia is certainly the aggressor now.
Again, this is evidence of Ukraine's recruiting being corrupt, and possible issues regarding manpower quality, but not of a total lack of men to hold guns. It's not like Russia doesn't have recruiting issues of its own.
Escalating the conflict is strongly against Russia's interest up until both sides launch all their nukes at each other, which is just bad for everyone.
Agreed, and if the US manufacturing sector had a lot of overhead/spare capacity, it'd be totally fine. I only bring it up because right now the USA's military manufacturing sector is in a hole that will require years of investment to bring back up to the level necessary. DEI is a luxury that the US really can't afford in the military right now.
Don't worry, I don't believe the CIA has a hand in everything - but if you can listen to the Nuland call and seriously think about what the rest of that communication would have contained and the implications of it, the idea that the US wasn't involved is just farcical. When you take a broader look and go back into the history of events in the region, the idea that this is just Russia deciding to try and reform the USSR just becomes a joke.
As an aside, please don't take a reasonable claim of mine and then inflate it into some bizarre conspiracy - it feels like arguing to win rather than trying to get closer to the truth. I'm not going to intimate that you think Putin is a hypercompetent megahitler who runs the entire world because he made the decision to send the troops in.
There's a difference between a war of aggression and simply assigning blame and declaring one person the aggressor. If my nation shared a border with yours and elected a leader who promised to take over your nation, steal your resources and ethnically cleanse your people, would you consider your nation's strike against my slowly assembling Genocide Taskforce to be a war of aggression?
They do not have enough men to achieve victory barring some kind of eucatastrophe or black swan event, and these troop quality issues absolutely have an impact on the battlefield. Russia may be encountering issues, but to the best of my knowledge those issues aren't as severe as the ones facing Ukraine.
To bring those points back together, Ukraine's manpower issues mean that they would require NATO boots on the ground in significant numbers in order to stand a chance at winning. The moment NATO deploys in force, whoever loses presses the button and the world ends. I don't think NATO will deploy in force for several reasons (like needing to deal with the middle east and asia, loudly talking about how the support is coming to an end), but current western leaders are substantially more feckless and incompetent than I was hoping they'd be.
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