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Culture War Roundup for the week of December 25, 2023

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I went digging for numbers and found:

  • In 1833, Britain abolished slavery (mostly); about about 1% of the population were slaves
  • In 1837, Mexico abolished slavery; about about 0.1% of the population were slaves
  • In 1860, the South fought a ware to keep slavery; about 32% of the population were slaves
  • In 1867, Spain largely freed its slaves; I can't find specific numbers :(
  • In 1888, Brazil abolished slavery; about about 5% of the population were slaves

Slavery was a much bigger deal in the South than other places that freed slaves. The only other place I'm familiar with that had a similar proportion of slaves was Cuba, where slavery was abolished in 1886. However, as with the South, this wasn't chosen by Cuba - it was imposed by an outside power (Spain).

Given the trend in when slavery was abolished across the world, I think it's quite reasonable to suppose, if given the choice, the South would've continued with slavery into the 20th century. None of this requires assuming Southerners were "uniquely horrible or monstrous" - all it requires is assuming the more reason you give someone to avoid uncomfortable moral reasoning, the more they will avoid said reasoning.

Here's are the two questions one really needs to answer to argue whether we should have postponed ending slavery to avoid a Civil War:

  1. How many additional generations would you be willing to consign to chattel slavery in order to avoid the Civil War?
  2. How many additional generations would it have taken for the South to change its mind?

The Civil War resulted in ~700k deaths and free 4m slaves. If I assume a year lived as a slave is half as valuable as a year lived as a free man, the naive utilitarian answer to (1) is something like 18 years. I personally rather doubt the South would've gone along with ending slavery before 1879, so I think the utilitarian answer is to prefer the Civil War.

The non-utilitarian answer is, imo, "wtf you monster - slavery is wrong".

I went digging for numbers and found:

In 1833, Britain abolished slavery (mostly); about about 1% of the population were slaves In 1837, Mexico abolished slavery; about about 0.1% of the population were slaves In 1860, the South fought a ware to keep slavery; about 32% of the population were slaves In 1867, Spain largely freed its slaves; I can't find specific numbers :( In 1888, Brazil abolished slavery; about about 5% of the population were slaves

Why the percentage of the South that were slaves and not the U.S. as a whole? You didn't divide those other countries into the pro-slave and anti-slave factions. Seems like a stolen base, especially when it was the anti-slave half of the U.S. that precipitated the end of slavery, just like in those other countries that weren't carved up for stats.

The entire purpose of this exercise is to consider how likely the South was to either choose to end slavery on its own or consent to have it chosen for them without bloodshed. The relevant metric, therefore, is how important slavery was to the South.

More concretely, the Civil War depended on individual state governments choosing to secede, so the geographic concentration of slavery in the US is extremely relevant. If slavery was evenly distributed in the US, I

  1. strongly don't think the Civil War would have been on the table to begin with
  2. tentatively think slavery would have been ended in the 1870s or 1880s