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Notes -
The only way either of them has a chance is if Trump actually gets removed from the ballot. No amount of attack ads on Trump are going to convince enough voters against him. Thus, attacking Trump is a waste of money, and it makes more sense to preemptively attack DeSantis.
A medical event taking Trump out of contention is also plausible (either death, or something sufficiently obviously incapacitating like a severe stroke). If it happens before Super Tuesday, then the primaries go ahead as normal. If it happens after Super Tuesday, then there are a bunch of now-unpledged Trump delegates on the Convention Floor, making it a party-insider contest. If it happens after the convention then the RNC would pick an alternative nominee - also a party-insider contest. So an establishment candidate who establishes themselves as the clear alternative to Trump has a chance of getting in through the back door.
A few months ago I would have said that the medical route was the least unlikely way a non-Trump candidate could be the nominee. But as time goes by the probability of a medical event drops, and it may be the least unlikely route is now a section 3 disqualification. If there is a section 3 disqualification, I expect Vivek to be the nominee based on "f*** the establishment" sentiment.
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