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I think it's important to remember that Biden led in the polls for most of the 2020 campaign season, only falling off the lead after performing surprisingly poorly in the early primaries. This is difficult to remember, because the media class was never all-in on a Biden candidacy and was looking to prop up alternatives to take the so-called moderate lane, most notably Klobuchar and Buttigieg. The problem was that neither of those two had a chance of getting broad support among black voters. After South Carolina proved that they would support Biden regardless of how many people wrote his obituary, it was clear to the other moderates that they had no lane left; Biden would win the South by huge margins while they fought against each other and struggled to keep up with Bernie and Warren in the other states. The only path either of them had was through a brokered convention, and that's not a good way to go. So they dropped out and supported the moderate with the best chance.
I digress, though. The lesson to be drawn from this is that dominance in polls means nothing once the actual elections start. Biden's lead wasn't as big as Trump's but it was big enough. If DeSantis or Haley or whoever goes into Iowa and wins, or is at least competitive, then it's a whole different ballgame, and 2020 shows that there's a strong possibility of that happening. Buttigieg was only polling around 7% when he won Iowa. And if that happens in 2024 it will throw the whole Trump campaign into a tailspin that they may not be able to recover from. I'm not saying that will happen, but it's a distinct possibility. Maybe there's a Trump constituency similar to black southerners who can buoy him later in the primaries, but again, maybe not. We'll find out soon enough.
Yes, thank you for reminding me Biden had leads in national polling leading up to the first primaries. My memory is his polling tanked after his bad losses in Iowa and New Hampshire to out of the top 3. The media was also fawning over Kamala and pushing Booker, one of which failed because Kamala is so dislikable and she dropped out early and Booker who withdrew before the SC contest but would have likely gotten black support in South Carolina. Both of which dropped out before the SC primary because a deal was struck for Jim Clyburn to deliver the machine black votes to him and he did, saving Joe Biden's campaign. None of this was written-in-stone and it took quite a bit of effort to accomplish. It was neither easy nor inevitable.
Biden +~5-10 in national polling isn't just "not as big as Trump's," it's not even in the same category because Trump is polling near or over 50% in most primaries, including all the first ones. Biden was polling behind multiple other candidates in the early primaries and lost those primaries, coming in 4th? in Iowa. For comparison, Trump is +50 in national polling and well over 50%. That 50% number is a magic one in polling and more or less signals the contest is over. Comparing the 2020 Democrat primary with the 2024 GOP primary is difficult because the 2024 GOP Primary is the least competitive primary in the modern era and it's not close. The fact it exists at all is because many in GOP leadership and the candidates hope Trump will somehow be removed from the contest. All of the manufactured and curated media dialogue and blitz and ads are contingent on this.
The gameplan of the early primaries is to do well enough to convince other campaigns to drop out as donor dollars dry up and media pressure escalates. Trump isn't going to drop out due to primary performance. Trump will never have fundraising issues. He won't be pressured by media derps. He will get through the primary season and will get to the convention. The only path forward for the other GOP candidates is for Trump to be removed; that's the only distinct possibility. If this happens and the GOP does do anything other than run Trump anyway, they will not only lose the general election badly but will likely kill the party.
The reason why Democrats have changed their "primary" system and removed Iowa and NH from the lead primary contests is because they know Biden does poorly in them and is just another example of the Democrats ability and willingness to exercise Party power to shield their preferred candidate. The contrast between Democrats and the GOP is stark.
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