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Yes, thank you for reminding me Biden had leads in national polling leading up to the first primaries. My memory is his polling tanked after his bad losses in Iowa and New Hampshire to out of the top 3. The media was also fawning over Kamala and pushing Booker, one of which failed because Kamala is so dislikable and she dropped out early and Booker who withdrew before the SC contest but would have likely gotten black support in South Carolina. Both of which dropped out before the SC primary because a deal was struck for Jim Clyburn to deliver the machine black votes to him and he did, saving Joe Biden's campaign. None of this was written-in-stone and it took quite a bit of effort to accomplish. It was neither easy nor inevitable.
Biden +~5-10 in national polling isn't just "not as big as Trump's," it's not even in the same category because Trump is polling near or over 50% in most primaries, including all the first ones. Biden was polling behind multiple other candidates in the early primaries and lost those primaries, coming in 4th? in Iowa. For comparison, Trump is +50 in national polling and well over 50%. That 50% number is a magic one in polling and more or less signals the contest is over. Comparing the 2020 Democrat primary with the 2024 GOP primary is difficult because the 2024 GOP Primary is the least competitive primary in the modern era and it's not close. The fact it exists at all is because many in GOP leadership and the candidates hope Trump will somehow be removed from the contest. All of the manufactured and curated media dialogue and blitz and ads are contingent on this.
The gameplan of the early primaries is to do well enough to convince other campaigns to drop out as donor dollars dry up and media pressure escalates. Trump isn't going to drop out due to primary performance. Trump will never have fundraising issues. He won't be pressured by media derps. He will get through the primary season and will get to the convention. The only path forward for the other GOP candidates is for Trump to be removed; that's the only distinct possibility. If this happens and the GOP does do anything other than run Trump anyway, they will not only lose the general election badly but will likely kill the party.
The reason why Democrats have changed their "primary" system and removed Iowa and NH from the lead primary contests is because they know Biden does poorly in them and is just another example of the Democrats ability and willingness to exercise Party power to shield their preferred candidate. The contrast between Democrats and the GOP is stark.
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