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Actually I'm pretty comfortable calling that outcome - America loses. There's not enough time to make up for the manufacturing shortfall, and that manufacturing shortfall is so massively brutal that not even the US' slight technical edge will make up for it (if that technical edge is even still there in a decade, which is debatable too).
China has a material advantage in the local theater, but the best it can hope for is getting its neighbors to commit to neutrality (and at least Japan will not, and it still has meaningful shipyards). The US also can shut down Malacca.
Everyone's economy will be f'ed, but if China can't win in the span of ~9 months, it has lost. That said, I don't reject the possibility of it winning in that duration: there are just too many uncertainties to call an outcome.
China has, according to the US Navy, over 230x the shipbuilding capacity of the US. The technical edge? The US doesn't even have that anymore - the Kinzhal missiles they purchase from their now extremely close ally Russia are better than the equivalent western hypersonic. I'm not going to comment on the financial aspect, because I have no idea how much of either the US or Chinese economy is hallucinatory (except that it isn't zero for either).
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My suspicion is that within a couple weeks it will be clear who has the technological edge, and whoever does will win the war. And no one in the world has concrete knowledge of even how one side's weapons will fare, let alone both's.
It will certainly be interesting to see what technologies both countries have up their sleeves when pushed to the limit.
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