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PaperclipPerfector  3mo ago (text post)   1713 thread views

Transnational Thursday for February 22, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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You might be right, but that is far from clear. Some of the wargames they run do end up with a protacted ground war on the island itself. In this one: https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/01/csis-wargame-chinas-invasion-of-taiwan-in-2026/ they assumed that China would be able to land troops initially, but be met by a strong response from the Taiwanese army. It stresses the need to have that ground army in place and ready.

Q: Did CSIS model a wargame where the U.S. allies won against the Taiwan invasion but China hunkered down for a protracted war afterwards and strangled Taiwan with a long-term blockade?

CSIS: Mark Cancian: Great question and that is something CSIS needs to follow up and work on in the future.

Q: Did arming Ukraine take away from arming Taiwan?

CSIS: Mark Cancian: “No. Ukraine is a ground war whereas the CSIS Taiwan wargame is an air and naval war.”

So that guy at least seems to agree with you, but it almost seems like a contradiction there in his answers.

This one: https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/dangerous-straits-wargaming-a-future-conflict-over-taiwans did end up in a protracted conflict, with the Chinese side even detonating a nuke off Hawaii as a threat/deterrent.

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