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Notes -
In 1970, the Bhola Cyclone killed at least 300,000 people in Bangladesh. Fortunately, weather-related disasters are getting much less deadly, not more. There's very little reason to think this won't continue.
That said, as global incomes increase, refugee flows will continue to worsen regardless of the weather. Once people escape extreme poverty, they gain the means to emigrate.
This is a concern. In terms of EROI, renewables suck. My guess is that a lot of the solar being installed in California right now is actually negative EROI. Once you max out on solar, more solar just creates an unusable surplus.
But will this cause governments to collapse? I really doubt it. California can afford to be stupid about energy because they are so incredibly rich. It's true that renewables will make us poorer and more miserable. But governments can and do pivot when things get out of hand. In 2022, Germany started mining lignite again rather than shut down their economy.
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