domain:forecasting.substack.com
One obvious point seems to be that a a Geran-2 weights 200kg, 60kg of which is the warhead. When it's launched in a wave of several hundred, at night and accompanied by decoys, it currently does OK at reaching its target.
Adding hundreds of balloons to this operation (I don't think you'd want more than 2 drones per balloon, that's a large payload already for a lighter-than-air vehicle) is unlikely to decrease the cost per hit. Especially when compared to just doubling Geran-2 production again.
erwgv3g34
25m ago
I still remember when the admin of my videogame forum was killed, and the Daily Mail was the first to get the basic facts of the case right (board member obsessed with the admin's girlfriend decided to murder the hypothenuse) while "respectable" outlets like the BBC were talking about wargame fanatics and dark secrets. I got reverse Gell-Mann amnesia from that, and now trust the Daily Mail more than any other British newspapers.
madeofmeat
27m ago
I wonder if the logic is something like the first sequel being an easy cash grab where you don't want to expend too much effort or creativity, since it's fundamentally a bit grubby endeavor riding on the coattails of the initial movie, and the sequel is probably going to sink into obscurity after pulling in the expected amount of extra profit. However, if the sequel does better than expected, you've got a potential successful movie series going, and you should again start putting more effort and attention into the next sequel since now you want the sequel movies to be seen as An Entire Thing again.
Lorian_Aristedes
36m ago
Here in Australia we’ve seen the latest example of ideological purity movements devouring themselves. What I find interesting about this particular case is that, to me, it accurately represents what seems to have happened in a lot of left wing movements over the last 20+ years.
Co-founder and former Queensland state leader of The Greens party, Drew Hutton, has failed in his appeal to his own party to reverse the revocation of his life membership. Hutton helped found the Greens with Bob Brown, both in Queensland (1990) and federally (1991), the initial ideological basis was for creating a party with “a historic mission to try to push the world to a more sustainable footing”. The parties platform that I recall, growing up as an Australian in the 90’s, was for combatting climate change, stopping deforestation, protecting fisheries, reefs and banning live export of cattle and other stock.
But both Bob Brown and Drew Hutton have long since departed from the front lines of the parties political battles. In their place we have seen a succession of leaders that promote environmentalism, but increasingly campaign on social justice issues. A party that (until the recent federal election) were making the majority of their electoral ground in inner city electorates (inner Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane).
Hutton was embroiled in drama from a twitter post (what else could cause so much drama) made over a year ago, which led to him being labelled a trans-phobe and promptly to the revocation of his life membership after he refused demands to delete the post and the comments below it. Today it was announced that the year long appeal process has not landed in his favour, but is in fact keeping with the original revocation. But if he’s espousing hatred and division online while somewhat representing his political party that he cofounded, then surely that’s a just result?
My initial thoughts were along the lines of “grandpa didn’t keep up to date with the terminology and unknowingly crossed the line”, however, after a bit of research it becomes clear that Hutton didn’t even make the hurtful comments, rather that he “provided a platform for others to do so”. Which after further research, revealed that he had publicly questioned his Party in their actions of removing membership from a different member for voicing concerns over a proposed amendment from the NSW Greens to change “pregnant people” from “pregnant women” in an upcoming act.
Interesting. I’ve run out of steam now, it’s a been a long day on site, but I wanted to post this and hear what other thoughts The Motte have - Australian and International.
Links:
If that's how someone sees "worse", then touché, I suppose.
Lizzardspawn
59m ago
They are worse. They fact check and are not hell bent on any ideology other than traffic.
You're wired differently. I have no idea what anyone here looks like, and any self-descriptions I read I forget. Mottizens are all names and sets of random factoids to me. Here's your character sheet:
It's not exhaustive, but blame my bad memory. I barely remember anything about anyone. Which isn't meant to express any kind of low esteem that I hold mottizens in; I like you guys and am glad to have this place. It's just difficult to see you as fully-features human beings when all I get is text, and no way to square what you read with any real-world impression of you. You might all be fabulists. You might all be figments of some AI's imagination. You probably aren't, I don't treat you as if you were, but it's just not the same as talking to people in the flesh.
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