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domain:themotte.org

All life is temporary in a way, connections via the internet are a shadow of what one feels. It was great for what it was and I'd never been around as many young people who were looking to have a good time. These places are amazing in small doses, much like the drugs found there.

Twas ever thus.

The biggest benefit of her being into chess that I can see is that she'll find it easier to find a very intelligent husband if she sticks with it into womanhood. Given the sex ratio of the game, she'll have her pick of the litter.

Reading is nice, but antisocial. Soccer is social and involves exercise, so that's good.

It's also important to note that previous SOTA, DeepMind's AlphaGeometry, a specialized system, had previously achieved a silver-medal level performance and was within spitting distance of gold.

It was actually AlphaProof that was the previous SOTA.

An article just came out about the government supported grocery store in Kansas: https://archive.is/lNlvD . But the store is currently a total disaster:

Taylor, 68, has supported the KC Sun Fresh since it opened just blocks from her home. But that solitary tomato was almost too much to bear.

Sales were okay at first, but after the pandemic, crime rose and sales began to plummet. Police data show assaults, robberies and shoplifting in the immediate vicinity have been on an upward trend since 2020. Shoplifting cases have nearly tripled.

KC Sun Fresh lost $885,000 last year and now has only about 4,000 shoppers a week. That’s down from 14,000 a few years ago, according to Emmet Pierson Jr., who leads Community Builders of Kansas City, the nonprofit that leases the site from the city. Despite a recent $750,000 cash infusion from the city, the shelves are almost bare.

This seems to be a hit piece targeting the NYC mayor favorite Zhoran who wants to bring government run grocery stores to NYC

Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic candidate for mayor of New York City, has attracted attention for his campaign pledge to combat “out-of-control” prices by establishing five city-owned supermarkets that he says will pass savings onto customers by operating “without a profit motive.”

But it's unclear whether the failure of the store is due to mismanagement or criminals establishing a base nearby:

Part of the problem is the city’s lack of a jail, Young said. The left-leaning council closed the previous facility in 2009 as a cost-saving measure — a move the Kansas City Star has called a “$250 million mistake” — people arrested for minor crimes are quickly released instead of being held in rural counties miles away. That allows them to hop on the local bus system — free since the pandemic — and head back to the same location, Young said. “We typically have the same group of offenders every week that are recognizable by face and by name, just loitering and hanging out,” he said. “A small percentage of people are ruining it for the rest of the community that deserves to go to their grocery store and their library.”

It also may simply be that there are too many grocery stores for that area:

Data bears out both points. A USDA analysis showed the area around the store is low income but not low access. And a Washington Post analysis of the adjacent Zip codes show the area has steadily lost population since 2020. The council member who represents the area, Melissa Patterson Hazley, estimates there are more than 200 vacant lots in her district.

... the neighborhood has other options because of a nearby Aldi store and the independent Happy Foods Center.

But there's also more to the story - and a bit of misrepresentation but not outright lie slipped in by the WP reporter. Sun Fresh market isn't government run and never was. Sun Fresh market was actually a [successful independent grocery store](Sun Fresh Market) for over 25 years. The city does own the strip mall itself, and it seems that the store moved to this location in 2018, probably after getting some generous incentives from the city. After the Lipari guy called it quits, this nonprofit got their hands on the store (probably in a move set up by the city itself). But the city doesn't actually run the store.

Community Builders of Kansas City, the nonprofit that leases the site from the city.

So there are a lot of threads going on with this article, but my take on this is that the store was probably doing okay before 2020, but then Fentanyl Floyd's crime wave absolutely decimated the area. Seeing the situation, the store owner bailed out, but the city, not wanting to see their strip mall project go bust, gave a nonprofit millions in cash to keep the store afloat. On the other hand, it seems that the other stores in the strip mall are doing ok according to google maps, so it could just be that the nonprofit currently running the store is wildly incompetent.

Overall I think there's not enough here to get a good read on what might happen with Zohran, but my bias is still that government incompetence has no bounds. Aldi is less than 1 mile away and they are doing ok according to google. And even though the city isn't running the store directly they are throwing millions into it without figuring out how to get out of the hole.

Am I missing something here?

He has written some genuinely good stuff. His best article is probably Women's Tears Win in the Marketplace of Ideas, although I have a soft spot for Why Asia Stopped Having Kids.

With party discipline in Congress a lot stronger than it was in the Nixon era, there is nothing that can actually stop a second-term President who wants to brazen it out. If the Democrats take control of the House in the 2026 mid-terms (and they probably will) then Trump will be impeached and acquitted. At this point the number of plausibly impeachable things he has done is large enough that the actual charge doesn't really matter.

In terms of public opinion, I think Trump was just correct when he said he could wander down 5th Avenue shooting people and his base would continue to support him - his being an awful person if fully priced in by now and I don't see him turning out to be a kiddie-fiddler as well as all the other stuff is going to persuade anyone who isn't already persuaded. Swing voters know that Trump shouldn't be President, they are just open to the possibility that Dems are worse.

The more interesting question is how the right-wing media ecosystem changes if there is a serious feud between Trump and the Murdochs. Rupert was always an Old School journalist first and a conservative second, and from that perspective filing this type of lawsuit is an unforgiveable sin. Asking for $10 billion is a signal that this is personal for Trump too, rather than using meritless lawsuits as a polite way of requesting a bribe as he did with CBS. I expect this one to run until Rupert dies, and there is a strong possibility that Lachlan is close enough to his father that he will fill obliged to continue it.

Like @ThenElection says, it's not just that Mamet is "successful in her field." It's that Mamet is a dudely playwright who offends feminist sensibilities (yet he's successful!) who is also a right-winger (yet he's successful!) and wrote a play about a "women's issue" that should have been written by a (feminist) woman (yet he was successful!) and also she isn't very successful. It's unfair!

This is just petty poison pen writing. Like trans author Gretchen Felker-Martin writing a post-apocalyptic horror novel where TERFs are the villains and inserts a paragraph about JK Rowling getting burned alive in her mansion, or Michael Crichton making one of his critics a child rapist with a small penis.

Since WSJ's defense depends on proving that their publication of the material wasn't malicious, proving the authenticity of the alleged letter is paramount.

American libel and freedom of the press laws are also really strong to the point that it's mostly going to be on Trump and his team to show that the WSJ knowingly made specific claims they had strong reason to believe were fake. Given how cautious the WSJ article is already with wording like "It isn’t clear how the letter with Trump’s signature was prepared." hedging for possible ghostwriters/forgery by Epstein for blackmail/etc, Trump doesn't have much chance here.

It's an uphill battle for politicians trying to silence media, and that's part of the reason why over and over again they keep filing in states lacking anti-SLAPP laws because even they know it's mostly frivolous and for headlines/supporters, while they quietly drop it later on.

I think as Coffeezilla pointed out though, this reaction itself is meaningful and suggests the Trump admin also views the contents as damning if real.

Which would equally demonstrate that having a summer job doesn't preclude learning an instrument, which was the original question in this debate.

I agree with @Sunshine. This will make lots of noise in the usual places, but absent rock-solid proof that Trump banged underage girls (and not just "barely illegal" underage, but like 12- or 13-year-olds), it will just add to the growing pile of things that Democrats say prove Trump is a monster unfit to be President and Republicans say are a bunch of unfounded smears and whattabout Clinton.

Though note that Costco was the first first-world supermarket foster-kid Iomedae saw - she isn't comparing it to the rest of modern retail. The Soviet Union was a lot richer than a sword-and-sorcery fantasy setting, and a random suburban Randalls was sufficiently mind-expanding to flip an important Soviet politician in a way which would eventually lead to the fall of the Soviet Union.

It isn't Costco that is special - it is the abundance of food that a first-world supermarket represents. Given the consistent failure of grocery retailers (Costco included) to compete outside their home countries, I don't think there is a final boss of supermarkets, and if there is it would be Walmart.

I'm putting my money on Nothing Ever Happens. If there was bombshell proof that Trump is a pedophile it would have been leaked years ago. In the absence of that, this will just be yet another lawsuit Trump gets embroiled in for years. People will forget about this in a week.

Welp, it finally happened. However often in the past ten years we've heard about the writing being on the wall (which were coincidentally also closing in), or the other shoe dropping, it's always turned out that Teflon Don was able to escape more or less unscathed. Even January 6th, which by all rights should have ended his political career for good, turned into something he could make hay out of, blaming Democrats for overreacting to what was essentially large-scale trespassing, and playing the what-about game. 24 hours ago I thought the Epstein thing had more legs than any of the other scandals, but I didn't see it as having the potential to end things. Trump had handled it poorly, but there was still a chance that some distraction would arise and the whole thing would blow over.

With the filing of Trump's lawsuit against the WSJ, that chance has ended. With the full understanding that I'm making quite a bold statement, I think this may be the biggest unforced error of Trump's presidency so far, that if Murdock was looking to destroy Trump he played the whole thing beautifully, and this has the potential to bring down the entire presidency (though I'm not predicting that it will). It's almost as if Murdoch set a giant, obvious trap and, spying the bait, Trump ran headlong into it without even stopping to investigate. The correct way for him to have handled the whole Epstein thing would have been to shut up about it. It was a lame conspiracy theory that his base bought into but that had little purchase among anyone important. All that stuff about binders being on Pam Bondi's desk was only news among these people, and even Elon's Tweet didn't move the needle much. It wasn't a major scandal until the DOJ published the "nothing to see here" memo. From there, Trump's totally unnecessary denials only added fuel to the fire. He could have fired Bondi and delayed the whole thing for a couple months while a new AG was confirmed, during which time the matter could have died. But he instead doubled down on her pronouncement, calling half of his base losers in the process for caring about it. The WSJ thing wasn't even particularly damaging considering what else had been out there. So Trump may have sent a bawdy drawing to Epstein containing an oblique message that could have alluded to pedophilia. The story might not have survived the weekend if Trump would have just denied having written it and moved on.

Instead Trump had to sue. Because Trump always has to sue; he can't leave well enough alone. He could have taken the weekend to consult with advisors and attorneys on the best path forward. Any kind of reflection would have made it clear that this was a bad idea. But Trump is impulsive, and wasn't going to wait until Monday to file, wasn't going to give himself a chance to cool down. Get it out Friday. Now he has opened himself up to a world of hurt that he couldn't imagine beforehand. Since WSJ's defense depends on proving that their publication of the material wasn't malicious, proving the authenticity of the alleged letter is paramount. And the best way to prove that Trump can't meet his burden is by getting as much information as possible about his relationship with Epstein. Trump will have to turn over ever email or other communication with Epstein that he has. Trump will have to sit for a deposition where he will be grilled about their relationship. He will have to turn over documents. Everything is on the table, and courts give a pretty wide latitude for discovery in civil matters. And the process proceeds slowly enough that there will be a steady drip of documents that the WSJ will gleefully publish as soon as they get them. This could drag on for years, with new stories monthly about how Trump did this or that with Epstein. I'd be surprised if they don't livestream his deposition.

Unlike previous legal issues, Trump can't claim persecution here since he initiated the proceedings. While this means he also has the power to pull the plug if things get too dicey, it doesn't take much of an imagination to see how that would look. Even now, withdrawing the lawsuit is an admission that the letter is authentic. Dropping it at a later date makes it look like he has something to hide that he doesn't want coming out in discovery. Even the best case scenario, where it is revealed that the letter was a complete fabrication, isn't that great for him, as all he has really done taken one inconsequential piece of "evidence" off of the table. It doesn't make the whole Epstein Files mess disappear. But it will be a tough case for Trump to win, and it will be any tougher for him to prove enough damages to have any effect on News Corp. Is a jury in Miami really going to buy that Trump is 10 billion dollars poorer as the result of that article? But that's unlikely since the legal standard Trump has to overcome is the high as the journalistic standards of the WSJ. Murdoch is no babe in the woods, and he isn't running Buzzfeed. If the WSJ runs an article, one can assume that it was vetted properly, especially if they ran it by Trump for comment first. I don't know how this ends, but this suit just put things into overdrive.

Hes a hananianite libertarian who is butthurt that they couldn’t co-opt the right from the conservatives.

And rightfully so. Back then the left were acting crazy so it looked like the right were the only place for sensible, moderate and logical discussion. Turns out the inmates are running that particular madhouse too...

Crazies to right of them,
Crazies to left of them
Crazies in front of them
Volley’d and thunder’d;
Theirs not to make reply
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to post and sigh;
Storm’d at with spit and yell,
Boldly they reasoned well,
Down that partisan well,
Into a private Hell,
Went the once hopeful.

I have to wonder if this is a part of the success formula for Big Bang Theory- Sheldon's mother may not be everyone's favorite, but she definitely has redeeming qualities and listening to her is usually a solution for the character's problems.

He's a sneering anti-Trump libertarian who has a history of some politically incorrect racial views but now claims to oppose political correctness on the basis of colorblindness. That's not a totally inaccurate representation of his schtick but he also has unkind things to say about rural people, women, etc. He's very very pro-abortion and thinks the winning formula is 'aesthetics and rhetoric of Bush era democrats, but without the concern about race, hyper-neoliberal economics'. As a political formula this is, regardless of how well it would work as a governing formula, almost actively delusional; he combines most of the least popular positions in the modern US. He's also aggressively anti-Trump.

The largest single non-British ethnic group in the UK is Indians at 2.9%, and they are fairly well-behaved. The largest problematic group is Pakistanis at 2.5%. The idea that there is a single "Islamic" ethnic group that have any shared interest other than pretending to care about Palestine is obviously false if you are familiar with the politics of either the Islamic world or ethnic-minority communities in the UK.

If the UK had the political will to deal with difficult ethnic minorities, they would be easy to defeat in detail. The only people who lump non-whites together are establishment lefties, who while not all-white are noticeably whiter than the census.

And? Maybe violin is different (practically kids don’t have big enough hands to play guitar) but maybe starting insanely young isn’t actually necessary to be a virtuoso as demonstrated by two of the best guitarists of all time.

The real bullshit is something like the London blitz containing black characters.

I find this perspective a bit baffling. Have people forgotten how the artifice of fiction works? The idea that what we see on-screen has to represent the literal truth of the fictional universe, hidden-cameras style, in every detail, is a very modern idea and a pretty dumb one. It's how you get people making convoluted theories about code-names and plastic surgery to explain how James Bond turns into a different guy in-between movies. It's just a recast, bro. The 'real' James Bond looks neither exactly like Sean Connery nor exactly like George Lazenby. They're actors. Stand-ins. Race-blind casting in historical dramas work in the same way. A black actor is playing a character who, "in-universe", the audience is expected to understand wasn't actually black.

If you find this sort of thing immersion-breaking, fair enough. I certainly understand the appeal of television which leans really hard into hyper-researched realism; Rings of Power must particularly rankle because the Jackson films were built on this sort of thing. But complaining that black RAF pilots are "historically inaccurate" makes about as much sense as complaining that if Kermit is supposed to be a frog, he shouldn't look like he's made out of felt.

It's not "ego death". That's a bullshit term used by people who don't understand anything about awakening.

I've attained anatta (not-self) insight and I didn't lose anything I would have wanted to keep. You lose a delusion. You see that the "self" was just a peculiar form of content in your consciousness, consisting of a combination of physical sensations, feelings, images, and a very strong and convincing belief/concept. You see it as being a mirage and a process, a verb, rather than a noun. I'm still a human being with a body, mind, consciousness, feelings, perceptions. I just don't get fooled by combinations of phenomena in those aspects of human experience making up a "self". I still have an ego, I know who I am and the difference between me and other persons. It's kind of like, after having played an MMO with an avatar every day of your life thus far, you see it for an avatar, rather than a real physical thing that could somehow ever have inherent existence.

So when you realise that you don't exist, that's just about dropping a false belief and seeing the truth: that feeling of being a self was never born except as a mirage-like construct of the mind, and cannot die because it never truly existed. That's a relief. You still take care of your body and mind. Chop wood, carry water.

St. Elsewhere and its copy, ER (or was it ER that copied St. Elsewhere? I can't remember) were preachy at times and full of Very Special Episodes, but in the 80s and 90s conservatives could sometimes be depicted as sympathetic characters. (If they remade Family Ties, Alex Keaton would have to be a Never Trumper with a trans best friend, and West Wing would have to make all the Republican characters except the outright villains members of the Lincoln Project.)

An interesting idea. I think it's not being actively pursued because, companies like OAI don't see the economic value in such niche specialization unless it's for something as lucrative as say, producing a superhuman programmer. There's not much money in winning the Nobel Prize for Literature.

They also seem to me to be hoping that it's better to have general capabilities, and then let the user elicit what they need through prompting. If you want high-brow literary criticism, ask for it specifically, but by default, they know that mid-brow LM Arena slop and fancy formatting wins over the majority of users. Notice how companies no longer make a big deal out of the potential to make private finetunes of their models, instead claiming that RAG or search is sufficient given their flexibility and large context lengths. Which is true, IMO.

OAI did kinda-sorta half-arse personalization with their custom GPTs, but found no traction. Just the standard model becoming better made them obsolete.

I am skeptical that optimising for maths and engineering ability will produce intuitive social machines because, well…

Heh. Good one. However, look at Elon Musk or Zuck for examples of people who definitely lean more on technical abilities instead of people skills.

What's the moral of the tale, to you?

Be sure to pay the piper if you want to call the tune.

Broadly, the Hanania perspective is:

  1. Woke identity politics and the takeover of important positions by unqualified tokenism has been a disaster. Running the world’s premier empire and scientific machine requires strong competition to acquire and promote very intelligent, very knowledgeable people.
  2. Therefore we need a correction.
  3. Trump and his voters are not that correction. They don’t like woke identity politics and minority tokenism, but they want to replace it with rural white identity politics and affirmative action for the deluded. This is even worse than wokeness.
  4. Woke correction will not come from the left. Therefore attempt to destroy the MAGA right so that a smarter right can rise in its place. This right should encourage coloyrblindness, high immigration, low taxes, eugenics and globalism, and discourage white identity politics, conspiracy theories, religion and nationalism.