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jeroboam


				

				

				
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joined 2022 October 15 17:30:54 UTC

				

User ID: 1662

jeroboam


				
				
				

				
1 follower   follows 3 users   joined 2022 October 15 17:30:54 UTC

					

No bio...


					

User ID: 1662

Agree, a reversal of immigration is impossible. That's why its imperative to fix our broken immigration and asylum systems, because immigration is one of the few policies that can never be undone.

Almost all disasters are temporary. It took Europe only 10 or 15 years to recover from WWII. Countries like Poland have more or less completely recovered from Communism in 30 years.

But immigration can never be recovered from. It is one of few things that will permanently change a country.

Does this make me a conservative?

Yes.

It appears that my response was confusing.

I am saying @epohon is left authoritarian.

I don't know what Gideon the Ninth is, so no opinion there.

Me personally I'm right libertarian(ish) and trad-pilled.

I posted a 500 page book about Medieval Italian poetry and no one commented! I'm starting to doubt whether they even read it.

Personally, I come here for discussion with other smart, clued-in people. Long form content, whether text or video, demands too much from other users. If the minimum price of engagement is spending an hour reading an essay, then that's just too high for me. Distill the points that matter into something that's interesting and accessible. Then we can have a discussion.

The world is full of amazing long-form content which I can read in book form without needing to visit this website.

Discussion offers a different sort of experience that has a different value.

It's pretty clearly left-authoritarian, just a little more naked about the authoritarian part.

Edit. The original post is left-authoritarian. Not Gideon the Ninth of which I have no knowledge or opinion.

Foster was in a mob of angry people surrounding Perry's car. He wasn't just off in the distance with a gun at the time he was shot.

Each of these cases really needs to be examined on its own merits.

@The_Nybbler is right. You are trying to tie these cases together with some sort of general principle that falls apart the second you tug at it.

Rittenhouse was running away. All his pursuers had to do was let him go.

When not wanting AI to be controlled by sociopaths makes you "anti-progress"....

Look, AI is here whether we like it or not. There's not much that governments can or should do to control it. We simply don't have the regulatory tools, and Congress is comically out of their depth. But people like Sam Altman welcome regulation so they can slam the door shut on competitors and take all the value for themselves.

AI risk encompasses many scenarios. Obvious, the fast takeoff singularity attracts the most eyeballs. But that is not even the most likely risk.

Another very real risk is that one person or group is able to control the AI landscape. Whether that group is the Chinese Communist Party or OpenAI I don't want it. I don't want OpenAI to be the leaders because I believe that Sam Altman's actions (this is just a tiny example) make him unsuitable to lead the world's most important company.

Maybe I should have resisted the D&D reference. Here's what a "Lawful Evil" character is like.

https://www.thegamer.com/dungeons-dragons-alignments-explained-how-to-actually-play-lawful-evil/

In general, Lawful Evil is less disruptive to the average party if you play it right. It lacks the “kill and destroy” stereotypes of Chaotic Evil, favoring organization and order. Lawful Evil characters can put together long cons and intricate plans. They can work within the law, using bureaucracy and legalism to their advantage. On the other hand, Lawful Evil characters can be dominators, people who believe that the best way to set up society is to control others, preferably under an iron fist.

With everything we've learned about Sam, this seem to fit. Open AI seeks to control what users can do with AI, but accepts no bounds on their own power. Rules for thee, but no for me.

Note that this one little flareup is not the whole story but was just posted because of its high culture war valence.

As for the "her" tweet, that could mean anything.

When GPT-5 comes out and @sama tweets "skynet" I'll bet you say the same thing.

Does this really sound that much like Scarlett Johansson?

ScarJo claims (in my linked tweet above) that it sounded so much like her that her friends and family couldn't tell the difference.

So... I think either yes or she is lying.

Trivially it harms the person whose voice was copied, which is why she was going to sue. Surely you wouldn't like it if one of the world's most powerful companies used AI to make a porn with your likeness, for example.

But that's not really the point. The point is that pretty much everyone who has ever worked with Sam paints him as some sort of Machiavellian genius. Certainly the episode with Reddit played out that way.

Perhaps this person shouldn't be in charge of the world's most important technology?

Sam Altman just loves to be a sociopath and then brag about it. His latest?

https://x.com/sama/status/1790075827666796666

"Her".

In case you've been living under a rock, this is in reference to the 2013 movie in which Scarlett Johansson plays the voice of an AI girlfriend. And it's also a reference to Open AI's new product, Chat GPT 4o, whose voice sounds just like... you guessed it, Scarlett Johansson.

This is no mistake. Open AI actually approached Ms. Johansson and asked her permission to use her voice. When she said no, they said fuck it and did it anyway.

https://x.com/BobbyAllyn/status/1792679435701014908

If Elon Musk is chaotic neutral, Sam Altman is increasingly proving himself to be lawful evil. It's not a good look.

Sorry, but this is annoying.

I said Trump is not vindictive. Then someone replied with "give an example of magnanimity". Of course, magnanimity is not the same as not vindictive. Ignoring this contradiction, I replied with an example of how he is not vindictive.

Now you are trying to force me to defend a claim I never made, that Trump is magnanimous? I never said that.

Despite the "lock her up" rhetoric, Trump didn't actually try to lock Hilary up. That's just off the top of my head. In fact, I don't remember any anti-Democrat lawfare from his administration, although I'm sure we can dig something up.

Why does your worldview rely so strongly on Trump being vindictive?

He's awful in many ways, but vindictiveness doesn't seem to be one of them. His nature is impulsive, not cold-blooded.

The respectable class of Boomercons have already migrated to the left.

Trump's bombastic style actually appeals quite a bit to young blacks and Hispanics, and the Democrats are having a hard time keeping them onsides. Biden is being forced to defend the black vote, and it's going badly.

Witness Biden's commencement speech at Morehouse yesterday in which students turned their back on him.

What style is going to appeal to young voters? This or... this? Whatever the issues, one of these people has rizz. And the other doesn't.

I have Trump at 60% odds right now, but much higher if he is jailed. Personally, I plan to vote RFK this time around, but would probably go for Trump as a protest vote if he his jailed, despite his obvious awfulness.

When you are weak it is best to avoid antagonizing your enemy.

The worst case scenario is that the bureacracy would just say "no" to Trump's orders, precipitating a constitutional crisis. More likely they'll just slow play his demands until the clock is run out. Then the lawfare against him can begin anew.

The only way he doesn't die in jail is if a Republican is elected in 2028. For that reason, he needs to remain popular with the people which means not triggering a crisis.

Tangentially related...

How much should Trump get even, if he is elected? Either choice he makes seems pretty fraught.

Option 1) Play the bigger man. Pardon himself, obviously, and a few limited other people. Beyond that do nothing. This will prevent a wider conflagration in the culture war. Downside: without a tit-for-tat, the left will be emboldened for much greater tats in the future.

Option 2) Do unto him as he hath done unto me. Pursue corruption investigations against his pursuers (many of whom quite deserve them). Go after voter fraud and ballot harvesting. Turn the executive branch against the left in the same ways it has been turned against the right thus far. Upside: When both sides are armed, the chance for peace is higher than when only one side is armed. Downside: The system will probably resist him, and it could provoke a bigger backlash.

If I were Trump, I'd go with option 1. In reality, I expect him to just do whatever he wakes up feeling like he should do that day with little follow through.

Today I learned. Thanks. Edited my comment.

I have the following well-worn preference cascade hierarchy

  1. My rules. In this case, race blindness.

  2. Your rules, enforced fairly. In this case, all races are treated as protected classes.

  3. Your rules, enforced unfairly. In this case, white people are uniquely disrespected. Black people, uniquely sanctified. <--- we are here

I prefer 1, then 2, then 3.

My explanation for puzzling CEO behavior.

CEO's don't care about corporate profits or woke politics. What they do care about is status signalling within their elite group. They get more plaudits for woke initiatives than they do for meeting quarterly earnings targets. Therefore, they will purse woke nonsense at the expense of earnings, up to the point where they lose their jobs.

Corporate boards, also caring mostly about intra-elite status games, will give woke-presenting CEOs a long leash before they pull the plug.

However, there is a limiting principle. CEO's with extremely poor performance will lose their job. Being fired is low status so it keeps things from getting too ridiculous.

Sure, hospitals are different. As always there are specific exceptions to general principles.

There is no need, however, to protect a failing Red Lobster as a cultural institution.

They try, but they're just so bad at it. Part of it is unavoidable. The U.S. is the world's top oil producer now.

But also, these governments are clown-level incompetent, and are always backstabbing each other to avoid their quotas. In other news, apparently one of the helicopters sent to aid the rescue of the Iranian President has crashed with multiple casualties.

This is awesome! I think we've found a new business model for Chuck-E-Cheese.

Betcha it trades down on Monday. Punters betting on Middle East chaos have always lost, this time won't be different. The galaxy brain move is to short oil here. It's worked every other time.

(Note: I also subscribe to the conspiracy theory that the oil price is manipulated by Western government actors).

Edit: Oil opened down but is now up 0.19% as of 11:00pm eastern. Middle East news is either neutral or negative for oil prices.

Edit 2: Oil now sharply down after some Fed guy pontificated.