2D3D
16hr ago
Geography dictates that Bangladesh is a fucking terrible place to fight because it is filled with rivers and crossings are exponentially more difficult now. Indian victory is not an assured fsit accompli.
Nevertheless the bigger issue is not a hot war but Bangladesh harbouring Bengali agitators in Assam and West Bengal who play up Bengali grievances in local language. Dehli had enough problems with Tamils during the Sri Lankan civil war, and Bengalis outnumber Tamils by a comical degree. The Indian Army may be able to prosecute a campaign to clamp down any active Bangladeshi military adventurism, the GoI definitely can't handle a renewed ethnic conflict.
2D3D
21hr ago
Breaching the gentlemans agreement is more ruinous for India. The balochis and pashtuns are restless enough without Indian aid, but the Indian muslims are currently peacable. Supercharging the deobandi movement with external agitation is at minimum politically destabilizing and at worst secessionist. As it stands India has some breathing room with their naxalite campaign coming to an end, but Pakistan prodding of deobandi or even khalistani domestic terrorism will be bad for india.
Though frankly the greater risk for India is the Bangladesh Pakistan rapprochement. The fall of the Awami league has put Indias eastern flank back in play and if any secessionist movements in Assam gain local traction then India has a headache that will not be worth any amount of joy that can be gained from kicking in Pakistan.
2D3D
1d ago
Its precisely the timing calculus that let them defect. You can mathematically model this out as the penalty curve flattening out by the time its their turn on the ballot box, and the converse applies to the other democrats that held the line: their constituents wanted to win SOMETHING out of this fight but the politicians realized they had few victories achievable.
it just goes back to the fundamental composition incoherence the democrats find in themselves: overpoliticized liberals who dont need government services want the party to hold the line against evil trumplanders, while democrat politicians know their offices are getting drowned by calls for help from constituents. Ironically there is a simultaneous moral incoherence at the same time, where progressives insist on doubling down on cultural positions to keep coalitional discipline and liberals want to take the L and move on to winnable fights. There is little overlap between all these tactical and motivational principles, and within this incoherent mess an absolute spineless weakling like Schumer can continue plodding along.
Apologies for making this a total digression but including Raymond Reddington in that list is just absolutely laughable as "international man of mystery" goes because The Blacklist decided to Shyalamatwist by making Raymond Reddington, James Spader Moustache Twirling Hopkins Hannibal Channeler, a fucking woman.
It probably wasn't meant to be a girlboss attempt as much as it was meant to be a Smart Twist, but the reveal coinciding with the heights of cultural wokeness just made the entire series retroactively worse (I think, after the second season of Spader Smugly Wins I got tired of the premise). In any case the idea that Great (wo)Man Raymond Reddington is an aspirational touchstone for younger men to set themselves by is dodgy enough to begin with and became ridiculous later on.
The one US TV series that DID approach the AI apocalypse anything resembling competently was Person Of Interest, where it ended up being humans effecting their AI Godslaves. Otherwise most Great Man stories have to be small, since nukes and interwebz are unnavigable. Unless you're a leet hacker like Hugh Jackman who can keyboardhack while getting slopknobbed.
Knauf confirmed that the intent of the writing staff on The Blacklist (specifically show creator and co-showrunner Jon Bokenkamp and John Eisendrath, co-showrunner for the first eight seasons, and then solo showrunner in the final two seasons) was that the Red Reddington (James Spader) that we followed on The Blacklist for ten seasons was born Katarina Rostova, the mother of Elizabeth Keen, the FBI agent who was the co-lead on the series with Reddington until her actor, Megan Boone, chose to leave after Season 8.
@MaximumCuddles, this may or may not serve as proof. I personally noticed this theory when there was fucking ENDLESS spaderfacing about "well maybe I AM really your father or not hmm hmm hmm" that irritated the fuck out of me when watching Blacklist, combined with the lead actress just being very bad at doing anything other than white woman whining about this brainteasing, so I just caught up the summary when it finished and, yea, retroactively made my decision to dip early on worth it.
2D3D
3d ago
Perhaps I should be clear, treated as a shitty inferior member of the girls. The lowest caste, like the annoying younger brother good only for carrying stuff and explaining why ____ is so stupid. All the bad stuff of girl cliques none of the sisterhood crysession catharsis. I mean you can have that but you'll just be even less of a man in their eyes.
2D3D
3d ago
In every situation where men infiltrate women heavy spaces they either get rejected for being pervs or get treated as one of the girls. Unless you're good looking to begin with, bur you dont need to be IN the program for that to yield benefits just hanging around the water cooler "because it smells nicer here".
2D3D
4d ago
Takeover by the ballot box? Just walk in claiming political persecution, wait a few dozen years until they're sufficiently entrenched as a minority then start agitating for special rights to reengage a 'reformed' Russia. No grand takeover by superior slavic force of arms, but Muscovy managed to paralyze the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth with a single subverted member and they are repeating it with Hungary.
I mean, what IS Russias strategic goal. Subversion of the west relative to Russia? "Do nothing, win" is a leading strategy now. Restore the Russian Empire as a massive dickwaving contest? Say the magic word "anti imperialist" and tankies fall over themselves spreading cheeks to get buttblasted by noble communist Russia. Secure borders forever? Nukes already exist.
Whatever it is, going in guns out dicks out doesn't work. The west is uniquely vulnerable to Magic Words and Russia simply needed to speak human rights claims and they'd be free to run wild within western europe. Europeans can't bring themselves to admit that their experiment in humanitarian superpower leadership has rotted them from the inside, and they are happy to have their people exploited raped and murdered by anyone with the magic lable of refugee.
2D3D
5d ago
Its a tricky subject and the best response should be "shrug shoulders and blame Long Dead History" because when you tip the scales with your own grubby fingers its your fingerprints all over the black female wehrmarcht soldier or male asian confederate senator.
OR
go the way of the Greendale Human. Representation via eldritch horror
2D3D
5d ago
Aye, I read theres a blacklist, but it is precisely the 2nd order repetitions that show up on mass scrapes. In any case my statement is more about how force feeding LLM with pro trans ideology isn't actually happening compared with ingest and correctly. Though I'm eager to know if I'm wrong as well, since it would prove that LLM being fake and gay is a deliberate curation rather than a safetyism filter and tricking LLM Tay-style becomes on the cards
2D3D
5d ago
Surprisingly low for such a misogynistic culture. Female economic empowerment in Russia is almost an accidental byproduct of rampant alcoholism incapacitating male productivity. Yes Igor you sperm me so good with your vigorous maleness. Go take nap, you stud, I must clean banya.
2D3D
5d ago
I agree that this is possible, but LLM scrapers didn't get a preselected corpa to run on, the scrapes were let loose all over the internet and then processed later. While there is endless woke garbage on NYT or Slate or Huffpo, there is also Alex Jones (PBUH) 3 kb per page html slop, murdoch outlets and disqus rants easily scrapable by the spiders. The filtering has to happen post ingestion because the internet is just that big and we 2000 era semilibertarian refugees usually lament the downfall of our old haunts rather than step foot in the now-friendly territory we used to shun.
2D3D
5d ago
I dealt with a violently homophobic Ukrainian probably-an-actual-nazi who said that he would take tiddy skittles and bend over to suck black cock while being rammed by pakistanis if that would ensure Russia gets turned into glass. Its like the Sandanistas pretending to like Juche and gifting Kim Il Sung a stuffed crocodile, any ideology is acceptable so long as it comes with guns and ammo.
2D3D
5d ago
At least the Russian immigrant invasion comes with guns so shooting them is acceptable. If Russia wanted a bloodless victory they should have just plead for asylum endlessly like the entire third world is doing for the west.
2D3D
5d ago
The article is fascinating, and of course damning. I would like to posit a theory I've had ruminating in my head for awhile and which I doubt is unique but is certainly undervocalized:
LLM pretained safetyism weights and filters are looping back onto themselves, with the RLHF being inherently flawed due to either specialist user biases (the Scale.ai style problems of insufficient experts being overloaded with noncore queries), or large training corpa being just overwhelmed by raw numbers (Indian and Nigerian and Indonesian populations, for example). Because the pretrained datasets overweight western frames, the corrective measure artificially inflates weightages of deficiently focused populations per the corrective measures in place: the corrective lens is itself the distorting factor, not necessarily the underlying training corpus. This corrective lens being iteratively reinforced by biased entities and market heterogenization causes LLMs to end up having frames baked in that are, without user specified repositioning, going to reflect a weirdly 'woke' consensus that is unnoticed by most.
For western feminists, the gender war framing reflects a standard liberal belief: their ideology is axiomatically superior and all who come in contact with it are wololooed into accepting the feminist/liberal order: they don't need to reproduce because prosletyzing will replenish all their numbers. Needless to say this has not really worked out in observed reality, but perhaps thats just how we all have sequestered ourselves into different social media and meatspace realities. For the lesbian feminist in Portland celebrating Mamdanis win by having a trans focused poetry circle, her lived reality is entirely valid from her own perspective. 'Reality' as it were does not need to assert itself ever, and now they have AI to parrot their moral words back to them.
2D3D
7d ago
Problem of teleoperation is the same problem of ride hailing services: lumpy demand. Your operator isn't going station to station, he's having to spin up multiple assistants only for them to lay idle later on. It ends up being a permanent remote butler, but without the flexibility of on-demand functionality.
I am also ignoring the basic executive deficiencies of all robots for variable tasks. Rugs and cables are navigation deathtraps, let alone stairs. Grabbing stuff without haptic feedback for edge delineation or roughness is a recipe for overpressure. Even teleoperated robots will struggle, and I would argue struggle even more because humans are too used to our own feedback mechanisms and translating imperfect feedbacks makes things worse - look at how crap we are if we need to do fine work with thick gloves on.
Neo strikes me as using the claim of training data development as an excuse for rolling out a halfbaked teleoperated product in advance of other home assist robots. It stinks of narrative control being favoured over capability readiness, and the only weirdos that will accept a manifestly incapable robot like that are perverts that get off on violating the theoretical operators privacy.
2D3D
7d ago
https://old.reddit.com/r/polandball/comments/5jjswq/the_refugee/
The sacred innocent Russian must be protected from all by force, and this sacred innocence means Russia is never ever in the wrong. Subjects of the Russian sphere are rewarded with largesse, how said largesse gets distributed internally isnt Russias problem. Chechnya is a financial dumptster fire that Russia drowns with oil sales because Kadyrov cracks his own peoples skulls on Russias behalf not just for own benefit.
To be in Russias imperial sphere is great for ruthless rulers that have no qualms subjugating their own people, since Russia does not care and in fact often helps out directly. The problem of externally aided subjugation of course is that beyond a certain point it becomes external support required subjugation, and if the patron falls (Yugoslavia, Soviets) or loses interest (USA, British India) then the internal tensions boil over beyond the local authorities executive capability. Unsurprisingly smarter countries recognize the futility of this bargain and try for internal stability rather than seeking fickle external patronage. Ukraines misery is borne from Yanukovichs mistake in assuming he could use his internal repression tools and that his Russian patron had enough strength to overcome escalating dissent.
Turns out Russia underestimated its internal leverage within Ukraine in 2014, and spent a decade rebuilding its levers of influence and subversion to prosecute a more direct extermination of Ukrainian independence. Its easy and very fun to clown on Russias massive failures in the Kyiv axis and Kharkiv/Khereon reversals, but Russia did have a successful lightning campaign past the Kerch strait bottleneck and even up to Kherson because of successful infiltration.
2D3D
8d ago
I get the appeal of teleoperation since it solves 99% of the bullshit edge case tripups that any type of robot runs into, but then the economic proposition dies entirely. Teleoperation performs the low frequency near-regex tasks like dusting tchotckes or fetching packages but it still can't do priority care like flipping grandpa to prevent bedsores or popping dementia grannies pills into her mouth. Once I'm paying for a subscription with another human being accountable I want everything I'm paying for. Users accept the limitations of their roomba, but if its high level its gotta actually be a high level assistant. And given how it took 5 minutes to get a glass of fucking water the assistance quality leaves much to be desired.
2D3D
8d ago
This might have a CW angle, it might not have. But I have to bitch about the Neo robot.
For the uninitiated, the Neo X1 Home Robot is a home assist humanoid meant to perform the daily tasks in the household for people that don't have maids. It is Rosie the Robot of Jetsons fame, except in a deliberately less fuckable package.
And also 100% teleoperated. They claim its only partially teleoperated but we all know its 100% brittle edge shit.
I am deep in the robotics space and one thing repeatedly emphasized in deployments is DO NOT TELEOPERATE IN PRIVATE DOMICILES. Obviously the security and privacy implications are immense and pose incredible liability risk for operators. If robot has a call home check in function like Alexa and is sometimes on and sometimes off how do you prove the negative that the robot was off at the time of any incident happening? Its a minefield.
You know whats a bigger minefield? Sexual harrassment.
The Neo X1 is teleoperated with livestreamed footage to a Quest 3, complete with haptic feedback on the controllers. The Neo X1 is basically a captive Omegle audience, and you can basically torture any operator by strapping a Mr Hands video to the camera field of view and touching the robots hands every few seconds to force the haptic feedback. And while operators are obviously free to terminate a session for harrassment mitigation, you really think someone that shells out 20k for a robot that REQUIRES this type of teleoperation for fulling long tail tasks will accept that his 20k robot can just decide to not work?
The future of general purpose humanoid robotics is really interesting, but Neo X1 is basically a juicero moment for the industry and the longer Boston Dynamics or Tesla fail to come up with something the more fake and gay the entire concept becomes.
2D3D
8d ago
You get over it by doing all the kinky stuff with HER going forward, and if thats off the table for physiological or psychological reasons then you accept who she used to be is not who she is now. She is not the same person today she was yesterday and will not be the same person tomorrow she was 10 years ago.
If your own personal value matrix emphasizes (parnter.bodycount)<(own.bodycount) then either accept that the partner is lying or buy a mail order bride.
It must be noted that you MUST know at least the vagueness of whatever your partner has gotten up to in the past. Finding old nudes of your partner even if you possess your "own" will still be weird if it was never mentioned even in brief. I don't know how this will ultimately extend to the inevitable of kids finding out what mom and dad were like if social media archives go far back enough.
2D3D
8d ago
Artillerymaxxing is what you do when you can't maneuver and have an excess of shells and barrels relative to other assets. Ukraine going artillery isn't due to inherent superiority, its due to availability. Even now we've seen a reduction in Russian artillerymaxxing because artillery spares aren't as rich as they used to be and glide bombs have proven to be a much more effective weapon at the operational and even tactical level. Artillery duels have given way to FPV ambushes or glide-bomb centric strongpoint degradation.
Stocking artillery isn't great because primers degrade, but for the west they just churn out new bags, whereas for the soviet stuff you can't tell if the shell is dead untill its inside the tube. Yes, soviet stuff stays in better shape longer than fiddly western stuff, but slathering stuff in cosmoline is its own utter hell and even rugged 80s era stuff doesn't survive 40 years. 10-2 year preservation windows could be stretched under PERFECT conditions to maybe 30-35 years, so the vast parks of Russian equipment hit a reactivation wall. Artillery is used early, used fast, and now gives way to whatever can actually be produced. Given the vids of the fronts, that ends up being Chinese golf buggies and FPV drones, not T14 terminators.
2D3D
8d ago
I keep thinking of the Toyota war where Libyans bumrushed tanks in the first week and then couldn't keep up logistics and maintenance tempo so they got stomped by cheat Hiluxes. Libya had supplies... in Libya. Logistics depth and reach under threat has not been stress tested at all so it remains to be seen how exactly things will pan out in a kinetic peer engagement requiring flag planting.
2D3D
8d ago
Once Severodonetsk/Popasna/Bakhmut/Avdiika/Chasiv Yar fall the kokhols will be shattered and they will fall back like the cornered rats they are. They totally won't fall back to the next defensive line that, undermanned and underprovisioned as they are, still managed to hold off the unsupported spears.
It'll work this time! This time the kokhols really are on the ropes and going to collapse! Once Kramatorsk falls then Russia will have finally achieved the territorial victory they achieved in 2014!
2D3D
8d ago
For feminists women in prisons aren't a relevant entity because women are wonderful so their being in prison is simultaneously a removal of the halo effect and expulsion from the category of women and thus are irrelevant to Womxn. Trannies on the other hand are a relevant entity outside of the prison for Womxn, so catering maximally to them is automatically a high payoff if you have rejected criminal women from the Womxn coalition. Pity about the second order effect of other women self selecting out of the Womxn but thats just false consciousness and internalized misogyny.
2D3D
8d ago
The stakes for female status games is who seizes the pie and distributes it thusly, the stakes for male status games is getting more pies or defending pies from raiders, or failing which destroying the pies so no one gets to eat. The reign of Ottoman Sultanas consolidated and preserved Suleimans expansions for nearly a century, an unheard of territorial expansion when succession crises were the literal order of the day. Women have a role in societies, and can perform them better than men precisely because they are not men. Unsurprisingly societies that had long term continual civic stability without women in charge had un-men running the show: eunuchs and celibate clergy. The value in having the authoritatively incapable administer the machine prevents claimants from fearing what is effectively management buyouts and what keeps the machine going in lull or transition periods.
The tradeoff is when the administration thinks it is the authority and parasites itself into power. The trappings of authority are not the muscle inside the fist, and when push comes to shove the kinetic authority must assert itself. Ironically the women who know the game therefore are incentivized to accumulate and wield authority rather than administrative alliances because their authority is more likely to be directly challenged. Theres a point here somewhere about Merkels weakness being indulged by the German public lead to the wif schiffen das death knell, but I can't be bothered to spell it out.
Insurgencies dont succeed on the back of material support, they succeed on the back of domestic opposition to the ruling class. Muslims in India largely seem tolerant of even the rising hindutva because it is patently obvious to anyone with functioning neurons that Pakistans brand of islam just results in shitty outcomes for muslims than even within india. This means that the calculus can flip however and just because muslims in India have been relatively peacable compared to naxalite tamil khalistan assamese guju violence it doesn't mean they are eternally docile.
And hostility can manifest in ways potentially more disruptive than war. Indian politics outside the hindi core are already a fragmented mess of local parties who barely hate their local enemies more than whoever is in/outside of Dehli. Bangladesh hosting dissident west bengali assamese or bihari political intellectuals calling for political localism against whoever happens to be in delhi will foment more fracturing than any direct action. Bangladesh isn't going to be a new front, but a 60 second tiktok reel can destroy Delhis political grip more than 3000 black jets of Allah.
More options
Context Copy link