2D3D
6d ago
Breaching the gentlemans agreement is more ruinous for India. The balochis and pashtuns are restless enough without Indian aid, but the Indian muslims are currently peacable. Supercharging the deobandi movement with external agitation is at minimum politically destabilizing and at worst secessionist. As it stands India has some breathing room with their naxalite campaign coming to an end, but Pakistan prodding of deobandi or even khalistani domestic terrorism will be bad for india.
Though frankly the greater risk for India is the Bangladesh Pakistan rapprochement. The fall of the Awami league has put Indias eastern flank back in play and if any secessionist movements in Assam gain local traction then India has a headache that will not be worth any amount of joy that can be gained from kicking in Pakistan.
2D3D
6d ago
Its precisely the timing calculus that let them defect. You can mathematically model this out as the penalty curve flattening out by the time its their turn on the ballot box, and the converse applies to the other democrats that held the line: their constituents wanted to win SOMETHING out of this fight but the politicians realized they had few victories achievable.
it just goes back to the fundamental composition incoherence the democrats find in themselves: overpoliticized liberals who dont need government services want the party to hold the line against evil trumplanders, while democrat politicians know their offices are getting drowned by calls for help from constituents. Ironically there is a simultaneous moral incoherence at the same time, where progressives insist on doubling down on cultural positions to keep coalitional discipline and liberals want to take the L and move on to winnable fights. There is little overlap between all these tactical and motivational principles, and within this incoherent mess an absolute spineless weakling like Schumer can continue plodding along.
Geography dictates that Bangladesh is a fucking terrible place to fight because it is filled with rivers and crossings are exponentially more difficult now. Indian victory is not an assured fsit accompli.
Nevertheless the bigger issue is not a hot war but Bangladesh harbouring Bengali agitators in Assam and West Bengal who play up Bengali grievances in local language. Dehli had enough problems with Tamils during the Sri Lankan civil war, and Bengalis outnumber Tamils by a comical degree. The Indian Army may be able to prosecute a campaign to clamp down any active Bangladeshi military adventurism, the GoI definitely can't handle a renewed ethnic conflict.
More options
Context Copy link