ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
No bio...
User ID: 626
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
So who is really the odd one out here? The people who have managed to propagandize nigh every western institutional and intellectual space to deliver their message, or the people who periodically pop their heads out of the ocean of left wing propaganda to pissedly proclaim that you can't propagandize everything... Before diving back in.
I'm partial to "propaganda works", but clearly it has it's limits. Why else are they freaking out over Joe Rogan? If they conquered all spaces so thoroughly, shouldn't he be no threat to them?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
Buying Twitter did not improve things.
You mean in the eyes of Blues / Greys, or actually? Because in my opinion it objectively did.
Maybe he can bring some of that spirit to his own companies, and actually deliver on some of the insane things he's been promising.
He was given quite a bit of power and room to play with DOGE, promised to find billions in waste and fraud, and came back with essentially nothing. The only reason he was even given this, is that he helped out by buying Twitter, and that debt needed repaying, but with time it became obvious he's a liability, so they had to cut him loose.
You are asking for non-public numbers that being a non-public company SpaceX is under no obligation to provide
I know, that's my point. My entire argument is that he's setting money on fire for gimmicks, and that if said gimmicks won't provide an actual return on investment, the parts of his companies that are bringing in revenue won't be enough to cover for the losses. To that I'm met with an endless stream of "but look at all the launches" arguments, that never actually show said launches are bringing enough profit to bailout projects like Starship, let alone the decline of Tesla.
account for roughly 2/3rds of the company's revenue, and since most of that is for actual services rather than hardware it probably has a decent profit margin, but everyone has their own assumptions.
Even though they're not selling a lot of hardware, they still need to make a lot of it to maintain the service. Starlink satelites have a 5 year lifespan. They need to keep making, and putting them into orbit. If launching them with Falcon was enough to justify the company's existence, I doubt he'd be trying to make Starship the Next Big Thing so quickly.
I know Musk is one of the richest people on Earth, but even he doesn't have unlimited cash to throw at a failing endevour.
Correct, this is why I called him "a dead man walking".
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
What a wonderful development. Get the popcorn.
Indeed!
Hopefully Musk learns what the majority of the rest of the grey tribe learned long ago: that Trump, while being useful for trashing wokeness, is broadly a thuggish buffoon.
If there was such a thing as "Elite Human Capital" which, for whatever reason, decided that Orange Man Bad, I'd imagine it would be capable of grasping truly mind-bending unintuitive ideas like "let the retards fight", but alas not only is the "Elite Human Capital at home" not capable of that, they picked the wrong retard to hitch themselves to.
It will be fun to see what they'll come up with to blame their own decision on the populists, a few months down the line.
abundance Democrat,
There's effectively no such thing. If an Abundance Democrat ever gets into power and a Woke Democrat demands their Abundant policies be filled with Wokeness, the former will cave immediately.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
I suppose that's not nothing, but I can't call that convincing evidence.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
Fully 2/3rds of my trips happen by electric unicycle these days
Ya got me. I wasn't counting e-bikes and e-scooters as EV's.
I might be confusing a lot of things, for a lot of other things. For instance, I might be confusing the abrupt breakup for an indication that Musk needed and didn't get a bailout, but I'm not confusing anything for Twitter drama.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
State of disbelief?
I'm actually somewhat worried he'll tank the whole MAGA thing by using his connections to Trump to try to save himself.
Since the whole "save yourself by using Trump" plan didn't pan out, looks like he's determined to drag them down with him. Hopefully they can cut him loose before he does too much damage.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
To be fair, it takes a really high IQ to watch a man go down in flames and say "I want in on some of that action!"
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
Percolation will depend on how cost effective the tech gets. It might happen at some point, but until then EV's will mostly be a matter of virtue signalling.
And even if it does happen, it's a separate question if Tesla pulls it off, or gets outpaced by competitors.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
but he's got over 40% of SpaceX, which at its latest valuation gives him more like $135B capital there.
Was it actually sold to anyone at that price? Even stonk market valuations are often nothing more than memes, but at least they have an advantage of being an actual market price.
Nah, but they've been flat for 2 years after skyrocketing for the previous 2.
-13% worldwide sounds like declining, especially with the rest of the EV market growing. -50% in Europe does indeed sound like "tanking".
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
SpaceX has a hell of a lot of long-term government and military contracts.
Yes, some of them are even nearly overdue, and are fixed priced, no matter how many Starships get blown up!
Starship is just the flashy sports car to create brand awareness, and potentially develop future capabilities.
His Artemis contract depends on it working, and even then I have huge doubts about their galaxy-brained plan of a dozen refuels per trip to the moon.
The cost of the Starship project is quite small compared to the SpaceX bottom line
1-2 billion per year according to Musk himself. What's their bottom line?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
While numerically having 50% of the launches, the Falcon family put more than 90% of the total mass into orbit
Yes, I've heard all that. Most of these are in-house for Starlink, and Musk is on record screaming at his employees that without Starship they won't be making much (any? He just said "poor financials") money with it.
Just please, won't someone show the actual profit the company is making. Literally none of this "dominance" matters if it can't bail out his failing endeavors.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
every relationship dispute you describe there concentrates around sex.
Did she block naraburns over sex? Marriages falling apart is one thing, falling out with every friend you ever had is another. And when people in online support group are telling you you're the asshole... Ho boy...
If the circles he's describing were the majority of EV owners, why would car companies bother making anything other than luxury car EVs, and gas powered cars for the middle class?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
Aren't you some London finance quant? The only way to get less representative of the average European from that is if you married into literal aristocracy.
Weird, I realize we're playing dueling anecdotes but I can't remember a single person I know talking about the environmental aspects of their Tesla.
Where are you from, roughly?
Europe can be very weird about this sort of stuff. My wife got an e-bike figuring it'll be a bit healthier to get off her ass, even if assisted by electricity, and the whole office was oohing and aahing over her "social awareness" for weeks.
belied by the number of cybertrucks on the road.
Oh, must be America, I think they're illegal here.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
and some cities (London, Paris, I assume others) explicitly discourage or even disallow non-EVs from certain areas.
I've lived in cities with emission norms, and even diesels are allowed in as long as they're relatively new. London and Paris might have gone literally zero emission, though I've never had to drive in either so can't confirm, and they'd be an exception.
Subsidies don't seem to be enough to sway any normie I've met, and the type of person I've met that has an EV still very much fits into the profile we were discussing with Southkraut.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
It has nothing to do with virtue signalling.
I don't know what to tell you man, from my neighbors to coworkers, it's a very specific type of person that even thinks of buying an EV.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
He does still have an uncontested dominance of spaceflight... Pretty far from dead man walking IMO!
The competition is catching up, and Starship has so far been nothing but a money furnace. Unless you show me how much money he's making from it, clean, I stand by my words.
Plus Tesla is by far the largest electric car producer in America,
Where sales are also declining, and there's no product on the horizon to reverse the trend. The money was thrown into gimmicks that are either proven abortions like the CyberTruck, or ones that are likely to follow it's fate, like Semi, Robotaxi/Cybercab, or Optimus. No sign of Roadster, that a bunch of people are actually waiting for.
Having the market locked down means nothing. Blues will sooner return to gasoline cars before supporting Musk, and Reds weren't ever that hot on EVs to begin with. He Budweiser'd himself.
Europe has always favoured European vehicles, it's understandable that Volkswagen is in the lead there.
This wasn't the case until very recently. Most EV's I see on the road that I see are still Teslas.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
How was it empirically disproven?
I don't put much trust in brain scan studies so I never bookmarked it, but there's a regular conversation between trans/anti-trans that goes something like:
- Here's a study that shows trans people's brains are literally more similar to the average of the gender they identify with.
- That study has failed to account for sexuality. A follow up that included it as a variable found that cis gay people also have brains more similar to the opposite sex, and that "trans brains" are indistinguishable from "cis gay brains".
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
Hunter wanted to make it seem like Joe was in on it so Hunter could plausibly "sell access",
From what I remember he was claiming that to other members of his family (his kids?).
but no money ever made it to Joe.
Was Joe audited?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
1979 is pretty late in the game. If you want a historical case, I'd go with Christine Jorgensen, which was nearly 30 years prior. The thing is even that story contains a significant element of social contafion, as Jorgensen was widely profiled in the media, putting the idea in the American public's awareness, and leading Harry Benjamin (the prior namesake of WPATH) to say "Indeed, Christine, without you, probably none of this would have happened; the grant, my publications, lectures, etc."
but how do skeptics of "endogenous" transgender feelings explain historical cases? A "critical mass" of cases sufficient for self-sustaining sociogenesis may be possible, but how could it come to exist, absent any "genuine" cases?
I'm not sure there's anything to explain. There must have been "genuine" cases of Morgellons disease, in that the affected person formed the idea relatively independently, rather than copy-pasting a ready made one from the media, but I don't think it implies they had actual skin parasites.
First, people are acting like the political valance of the platform has flipped, this is false. Progressives can post just as easily as they used to, they just don't want to do it when non-progressives have the right to respond.
Secondly, that's stacking the deck already, you can't just not look at it. It was total woke narrative control, even mild jokes used to get accounts nuked. A bit more spam is a fair price to pay for that, as far as I can tell. And it's objectively better that it's not like this anymore, as opposed to just better for one side, because you can't have a healthy ecosystem with one side nuking everyone that disagrees with them. Or put another way - a non-political person is better off having access to info from all tribes.
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