ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
No bio...
User ID: 626
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
I honestly don't know what you're objecting to here, if you're objecting to anything. A part of me wants to go on a Fruck-eque diatrabe, but his point seems so obvious that I feel like I must be missing something about yours.
Please confirm that you believe that this meme, which you yourself admit does not even pretend to be real, represents some novel danger to the truth, which we haven't faced already on a much larger scale.
Evo-psych makes a bad turn when it tries to explain behaviors this specific. It's a sign of status, simple as (which can flip valance depending on the time period and conditions, like being tanned vs. being pale). The costs and the planning are a part of the point, as they gatekeep those that can't afford it.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
What? They weren't even attempting to reach orbit with this one.
https://www.spacex.com/launches/starship-flight-10
Starship completed a full-duration ascent burn and achieved its planned velocity, successfully putting it on a suborbital trajectory.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
The Venn diagram between “thinks SJ is existentially dangerous” and “has given up on liberalism” is damn close to a circle.
I'm rather bemused at all the people here who bemoan the lack of charity for left, casually just making shit up about their outgroup, but I suppose such is life. Anyway, sadly, you are mistaken. Liberalism skeptics managed to appeal to some of the elites, but we're yet to win mass appeal, even among anti-SJ people.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
Reuse is; recovery they could definitely do.
Poor choice of words on my part, but I don't think anyone suspected I meant that it's the fishing out of the melted slab of metal that's going to be a challenge.
In terms of Artemis, though, what's most likely to do them in is the schedule. They're not going to make 2027 for Artemis 3,
I'm rather bemused at the idea of giving so much shit to Bezos for being "glacial" while blaming SpaceX issues on "the schedule" that they were free to pick up, leave, or negotiate. It's not even that they're making steady progress and the fickle Congress will be cutting them off, just as they were reach the final milestone. Starship wasn't in orbit yet, it's going to be a long way to even demonstrate ship-to-ship refueling, let alone doing it over a dozen time in order to get it to the moon.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
I think we need to go back to basics
I'd really rather stay focused, because you made a very specific claim, and whether or not healthcare "functions as a market" is not even relevant to it. Literal socialized industries (including healthcare in other countries) are able to give you the price of a particular product / service, so even if American healthcare is somehow not a market, it still should be able to the patients information about the prices of it's services.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
I have to say, I do like the idea of Bukele solving the crime problem, and then throwing people in the slammer for shits and giggles.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
But the people of this viewpoint believe the faux-Popperian argument for real.
I don't know about that. As a fellow disillusioned-by-liberalism, I'd say it's much less about letting totalitarians get started, as that's a response from within the liberal framework, it's that liberalism itself is folly. You can't have "separation of church and state" or "neutral" institutions, you will always promote specific values. There are some values of liberalism I admire, but others I reject wholeheartedly, hence the conflict. I'm not a fan of them pretending to be tolerant, neutral, and above it all either, but the conflict would exist regardless.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
It essentially implies the difference between the right wing and left wing argument about things are about morals and not about the effectiveness of policy or economic ideas for the good of our country and our citizens.
Do you think people who criticize Nayib Bukele question the effectiveness of his policies?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
No argument here: lots of MAGA types really are calling for their opponents' heads.
I do have an argument - that's what "dispassionately weighing up their options and reluctantly opting for tit-for-tat as the best of a bad bunch" looks like.
When Russia invaded and Ukrainians started referring to them as "orcs", that does not detract from their defense being a reluctant tit-for-tat. That sort of language is what you need to hype up a collective, and coordinate actual defense.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
and it looks like Gavin fucking Newsom will probably run for president in 2028 on a platform of owning the right and probably win and continue the escalating clownworld cycle.
And my point is: corporate needs you to find the difference between these pictures.
What's supposed to be happen in an alternative universe where Trump is not trying to top them? Newsom was discussed as the heir apparent to the Democratic throne before Kamala was even done losing. Is it "the platform of owning the right"? For one, are you sure they wouldn't be running on it anyway? Secondly, what is the difference between them running on that platform and not running on it? Biden was running as "le reasonable moderate", and look how that turned out.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
Definitely more. The Blues, even in Europe, were much more bloodthirsty when they thought the original loss to Trump was just a fluke.
There's been this hilarious attempt to make the poibt you're hinting at: "Oooh! You're really going to get it now!". They're going to become "Dark Woke" now! And I'm sitting here waiting for someone to point out the difference, if anything they're significantly more mild.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
Third, you’re misrepresenting Democrats. “When they go low we go high” was the motto for quite a while.
Did they actually go high?
Also, how doesn't everything you said apply to OP's point to begin with?
Every flight so far was suborbital. There was one where people were saying they could have gone to orbit with it, by chose not to.
Edit:
100 tons to LEO is aggressive
Wait, which one was that? My interpretation of all the bets is achieving orbit during a test flight, no cargo. Self_made_human's predictions include a safe landing.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
I think its less awkward when its actually a norm, but sometimes it does get used as a backhanded way to 'beat' someone by claiming "hah, you don't actually believe [thing] unless you put money on it!"
I understand the reluctance to put money on the table, but it doesn't have to be this way, gentlemen's bets are a thing as well. The feeling of losing face might be a bigger issue, but I think one can learn not to take it thay way.
even if you're perfectly calibrated
Meh, I'm kind of sour on the rationalist idea of calibration. Too easy to game by making predictions about things that no one cares about, and are easier to gauge.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
even my 90% CI is unmet, can I interest you in a $10 giftcard from Amazon or equivalent? That would be from me to you, no need to pay if I'm right.
That's a very nice gesture, but it feels a bit unfair when it's one-sided.
I don't think anyone else would be crazy enough to imagine catching skyscrapers with chopsticks, and pull that off too.
That, admittedly, was pretty damn cool. Luckily for me no one was soliciting bets on that one, because honestly, I thought thr idea is absurd, and would have walked right into taking the "not gonna happen" side
But that aside, it's the recovery of the second stage that is more likely to do them in. They're not even doing it for the Falcon 9, Starship is probably exponentoally more difficult.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
I think I recall reading something about how the "we have always beem at war with Eastasia" bit was inspired by his experience of the infighting between the Republican factions in the Spanish Civil War.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
I don't think this is accurate. Insurance knows how much it costs to insure someone in aggregate and where to set their premiums.
Do you think when you're buying a hot dog at a stand, they're charging you the price of that particular hot dog, or the aggregated price within a particular time-window that the stand owner is operating in?
I'm still hopeful for SpaceX to at least make operations on the moon more feasible, though I'm skeptical of making a real go at Mars colonization, especially as Elon's star has fallen so far recently.
Starship isn't really made for the moon either. Their best bet is high-throughput LEO transport, but I don't think they'll get it to work for that either.
It's a bit off topic, but I doubt there'll be a better place to post it any time soon. I had a bet about Starship going to orbit with two other posters. It was driving me crazy because I couldn't find it for the life of me, and I was starting to think I got pulled into the Berenstien universe, but I finally managed to find the relevant comments, so I thought I'll post them as a reminder, and to make future reference easier:
- It turns out that I just won my bet with @slothlikesamwise.
- I have 1.5 years to go for my bet with @TheDag
- I thought I had one with @self_made_human, but it turns out I just coaxed some predictions out of him. We've breezed through his 50% confidence interval one, just passed his 70% interval, and have one year left to resolve his 90% interval prediction.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
Doing these necessitates a bunch of complicated questions. Do you refund people if they "use" less? Can you charge them more if they "use" more? Is it fair to charge someone 4k instead of 100 dollars because of an alcholic?
That's just a restatement of your third argument, and it does not show how calculating the price is impossible. These sort of calculations take place in most industries all the time.
If we are going to make everyone pay in and pay out according to who uses it why not just simplify it and make it socialized medicine which is the logical solution?
That was my original question, if you remember, and you asking it makes no sense. For one, socialized healthcare is the opposite of "pay in and pay out according to who uses it". For another, how is the government supposed to allocate the healthcare budget, if calculating the prices is so impossible?
Developing accurate numbers is complicated, time consuming, and expensive and puts hospitals at financial risk due to insurance shenanigans.
Insurance is already calculating the relevant numbers, they can just show them to their customers / the public.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
I dunno. There's stuff you can pin on any authoritarian regime, but it clearly resembles some ideologies more than others. I think it had a pretty specific inspiration as well.
Which is why you'd charge me the expected price to begin with, and deal with the variables yourself, maybe adjusting the prices every couple months as the situation calls for it.
You definitely would not tell me how it's impossible to calculate the price of a sandwich, because maybe the fridge breaks down that week and you might need to buy a new one.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1mo ago
As long as these are reasonably predictable, you can calculate a price.
I don't think that's true at all.
I'm sorry for being pedantic, but how does that mean what I said is "not true at all"? You literally just gave an example of a calculated price. Someone might not now a median from their ass, but you can tell them "just look at the expected value, bro". They can then use that information to compare with other providers.
Oh, thanks for the heads-up!
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