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ArjinFerman

Tinfoil Gigachad

2 followers   follows 4 users  
joined 2022 September 05 16:31:45 UTC
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User ID: 626

ArjinFerman

Tinfoil Gigachad

2 followers   follows 4 users   joined 2022 September 05 16:31:45 UTC

					

No bio...


					

User ID: 626

Verified Email

I don't know how things are in the US, but in Europe companies pay premium for non-third-worlders. Now, the "premium" might still add up to chump change, but it might still be worth it depending on your situation.

No, it was sexism. "Binders" was used to imply that he wants to "bind" women.

Didn't get a lot done regarding Substack integration, but addressed a few bugs that were bothering me:

  • Apparently Twitter avatar URLs expire after some time. Either that, or some people I follow changed them (though I haven't noticed any difference), so I had to update them if any difference is detected.
  • "Starring" / adding a Tweet to favorites also cascaded to all it's responses, kinda defeating the purpose. Fixed, but introduced a new bug where "starred" quotes and retweets aren't rendered properly.
  • Paragraphs / endlines failed to render properly when viewing Twitter directly over the API.

How have you been doing @Southkraut?

You're welcome, but it's not entirely to my credit. I reserve the right to keep giving you shit about "three years AFTER" from now until the end of time

Feel free. Like I said the first time, my bets / opinions on Musk are not based on expertise, and I hope I didn't come off as pretending that they are. In fact, part of my shtick nowadays is proving the superiority of Vibe Analysis over deliberate reasoning, so I suppose my ignorance only works to prove my point here.

I'd put maybe 33% odds on them sending an unmanned (save for Optimus androids) one-way ship or two in the 2029 launch window, albeit probably to crash on arrival.

Well, if you want to bet, I'll be more than happy to give you 3:1 odds on this one. Even if it's smooth sailing from here on out, I don't know if they'll make a go for it. No one asked him to go to Mars, it's Elon's own personal dream, there's no money in it. OTOH he does have a contract for going to the moon, and his investors might want to see a better return on Starlink, and the things that have to be achieved before he gets beyond LEO make it so that "smooth sailing" is far from guaranteed. I want to see how that orbital refuelling works out, and if it handles boil-off well enough that it doesn't turn out they underestimated the amount of necessary launches by a factor of 2-3x.

Finally, there's the competition and the political risks. If Bezos swipes the moon from under Elon, the investors could very well say they're done here. If the competition can provide a tolerable alternative for Starlink, at least for the Pentagon, and the Dems win the next election, they'll stop at nothing to fuck him over.

Thanks for the detailed response!

When I watched, it looked like it cleared the pad pretty quickly

Yeah, I take it back. When I was watching a livestream, someone commented on it taking it's time (probably it being held, as you say), but what really gave me the impression was a post-launch commentary video, which, looking at the original stream again, must have shown the takeoff in slowmo.

But, unless they can do upper stage reuse, that still doesn't put a colony on Mars

Eh, it would be awesome, but unless some rabbits get pulled out of several hats, Mars feels like a distant dream.