My pleasure.
The other one of note is Bearjew saying that Ukraine having a 35% of holding Kramatorsk through the end of the year was optimistic, implying that there was more than a 65% that Russia would take it.
Please, see some of the responses to my request for Ukraine prediction in July for people that may need to update their priors.
For example, someone said there was less than a 5% chance that Ukraine would conquer more than Russia in the following 2 months and that there was less than a 5% chance that Ukraine would make ANY significant gains.
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HlynkaCG had the best prediction on the old Motte that I am aware of, though.
https://old.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/wda188/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_august_01_2022/iiq2xzd/?context=3
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