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Atherzon


				

				

				
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joined 2022 November 11 00:36:33 UTC

				

User ID: 1838

Atherzon


				
				
				

				
0 followers   follows 0 users   joined 2022 November 11 00:36:33 UTC

					

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User ID: 1838

HlynkaCG had the best prediction on the old Motte that I am aware of, though.

https://old.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/wda188/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_august_01_2022/iiq2xzd/?context=3

My pleasure.

The other one of note is Bearjew saying that Ukraine having a 35% of holding Kramatorsk through the end of the year was optimistic, implying that there was more than a 65% that Russia would take it.

Please, see some of the responses to my request for Ukraine prediction in July for people that may need to update their priors.

For example, someone said there was less than a 5% chance that Ukraine would conquer more than Russia in the following 2 months and that there was less than a 5% chance that Ukraine would make ANY significant gains.

https://old.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/w1s5b7/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_july_18_2022/ih9i22f/?context=3