BahRamYou
42m ago
You can always use further motivation to continue the war. They're relying on volunteers, not conscripts, and this will surely spark a wave of new volunteers. They'll probably play up the "IRL action movie hero" part even more in Russian media, too.
Oh, and this general was apparently from Western Ukraine, so he's practically the perfect model for their "Ukraine is Little Rus" propaganda. He can be a useful spokesman after the fighting ends.
Most high-level assassination attempt of the current East European unpleasantness. The target was lieutenant general Vladimir Stepanovich Alekseyev
He seems to be IRL action movie hero, who successfully fought the assassin after being shot in the back twice (while the assassin seems to be boomer who was using gun for the first time in his life)
Is it possible that this is all some elaborate Russian plot? War hero gets shot 3 times in the back, but lives and fights off his assassin bare-handed. They blame it on the Ukrainians. Makes for great propaganda value. (I'm probably biased because I've been reading Tom Clancy spy novels recently so Maskirovka is on my brain. The Russians are always doing this sort of thing in his books.)
BahRamYou
4hr ago
USA seems to be doing quite well at figure skating this year. It helps when you can poach the best figure skaters from USSR and Japan. However, that also diminishes the nationalistic hype of the Olympics... it feels like these are just globalistic sports dynasty families, spending their whole lives travelling around the world, not attached to any country in particular.
But also the death of network television, and NBC does a shitty job streaming it on the internet.
BahRamYou
11hr ago
Sure. Easy enough to say this sort of stuff when it's just hypothetical, much harder when it's a real decision that you have to make and it's permanent.
BahRamYou
1d ago
I think it's one of those questions that really depends on how exactly you phrase it. Obviously in the real world there are no magic buttons, so we have to use our imaginations.
Like, is this a button that's constantly available, every single day, but once you press it there's no going back? In that case i could see a lot of men pressing it in a moment of recklessness (possibly while drunk) just like how people get bad tattoos or other questionable body modifications.
Also, does it just work superficially, or does it affect their brain, too? Will they suddenly wind up with a drastically different personality? I don't think a lot of people would want that.
Also, is there an equivalent magic button for women turning into men? Otherwise, the world might end up with a huge surplus of women, which changes the gender dynamics quite a bit.
BahRamYou
1d ago
There used to be a lot of jobs for people liks: local music hall player, freelance graphic designer, craftsman stoneworker, small town paper writer, etc. Admittedly most of those dried up long ago, though.
BahRamYou
3d ago
For us in the US, the cost isn't necessarily the issue, it's finding a friendly doctor to write us a prescription. FDA rules us like a nanny state.
BahRamYou
5d ago
Definitely a lot of hopelessness going on. I'm a millenial, so I've heard us described as "the sad generation," an entire generation of young adults longing for the days of our youth when things were so much better. Which is weird, because all the economic stats say that we're much wealthier than ever, and there's a million new options for entertainment that we never had before, and... somehow that made everything worse? Odd.
I'd agree that e-proles and cosplay aren't just about sexuality. I meant it more like... any raw, unfiltered display of emotion. The male cosplayers I've seen at cons usually favor huge weapons and elaborate armor, which is more of a power fantasy. Then you've got the people super into historical recreation, or cute slice of life, fantasizing about some life of pure coziness. And even the more sexual anime stuff they rarely actually have sex, it's just blatantly showing off the bodies of hot women with no shame. I think it's that feeling of like "raw burst of emotion" that appeals to people who are kinda depressed and hopeless, because it at least lets them feel something. It's like taking a straight shot of cheap tequila, as opposed to sipping a fancy wine.
But also, yes, it's just a very convenient aesthetic. They can stay at home in their parents house, talking to their friends on discord, and apply some $5 hair dye or wear a $20 cat ear headset, and instantly they're part of it. No need to buy expensive concert tickets, or name-brand clothes, or a racing car, or cocaine or anything like that.
BahRamYou
5d ago
As someone not from the US I'd ask you to elaborate on this a bit. I've only seen such particular diners in movies and I can only assume that they normally make cozy third places in the terms of sociology. Is there any particular reason why they are normally open around the clock and are disappearing and are relatively expensive?
It definitely used to be a thing. I remember going to places like that as a teenager, but most of the places I remember have either shut down or are no longer open late at night. There are still some, notably IHOP and Waffle House, but they're mostly near freeways, and not somewhere I'd really like to go unless I'm driving long distances at night. Even most fast food places shut down at night (but there are some exceptions). I did see a few classic 24 hour diners in New York City, but that's NYC being different, and they were very expensive.
For why, I'm not exactly sure, but I can guess a combination of factors. It just costs a lot more to run a restaurant than it used to, because of rent and labor costs, so it's not profitable to keep a big space open with few customers. Or if it's peak dinner time, they want people to eat and leave quickly so they can turn the table over to a new customer. Especially if the "customers" are bored young people who are going to sit around for hours talking loudly and not ordering anything except maybe one soda, it's just bad business. Then, if it's in a city, you also have to worry about homeless people using it as a shelter, which is even worse for business. Maybe in the past there were more middle-class people who wanted to use it as a third space and could afford to buy a full meal there at 2am, but those kind of people would just stay home now. Something like the classic "Nighthawks" painting I just don't see, and maybe it's better that people can just stay home and go to sleep, but it is a bit sad.
BahRamYou
6d ago
Definitely a difference in the sort of crowd that would download a torrent + apply the .sub file, or pay expensive import fees, or join a club just to watch someone else's bootleg tapes, vs the current meta of endless mindless streaming on demand.
Also, excuse me while I go full weeb a minute, but I feel the same way about sushi. There's levels to it. On the low end, you can buy cheap premade stuff as a snack, and that's perfectly fine, just don't expect any complex flavors. American restaurants usually oyster California rolls or some deep fried monstrosity and that's... fine... but you might as well just order fried shrimp. The better places offer simple nigiri or sashimi with nice rice, so you can really taste the subtle flavors of the fish, and a clear mild liquor like sake really does complement it well. Some fancy plates and a cool chef also helps the experience. But at some point people go to extremes where they're just wasting money on "the secret, ultimate fish" or whatever and that's just stupid. Or you get drunk salarymen snacking on sushi while also binge drinking and smoking so... that can be fun too, in its own way. But once in a while its worth making the effort to appreciate a fancy meal with more subtle flavors than typical restaurant fare.
BahRamYou
6d ago
Not an easy one. I used to use MangaRock, but it got shut down for piracy. Im not as plugged into the scene as I used to be- the big mainstream western accrptance and commercialization kinda killed off the indie scanlation volunteers. Your best bet is probably to search the list of manga that have win awards not in the shonen/shoujo category, like the general category of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shogakukan_Manga_Award. Once you find something you like, you can search what else they've done- often they have more experimental works that never hit it big, but are more intellectual. Or if there's a specific genre that interests you, you can see if there's a magazine for that (eg, there's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comic_Yuri_Hime for yuri manga that's actually aimed at women, instead of male fanservice). Unfortunately the rabbit hole gets pretty deep, and the really niche stuff is often print-only, not sold outside Japan.
BahRamYou
6d ago
Yeah that's fair. I'd like to point out that there is some sophisticated anime, and especially the niche manga that never gets turned into anime. But I'm well aware that's not what people are watching on Crunchyroll or Toonami.
It's a good article, and there's definitely something real there, but I hate the term "dinergoth."
For one thing, they're literally not hanging out in diners. The classic 24 hour diner doesn't exist in most locations anymore, and when it does it's too expensive for broke young people to go there casually. Also they kind of frown on people just hanging out for hours, and young people are staying at home online anyway.
Also they're not goth in any way. The glassic goth aesthetic is dark, muted colors and sad, serious emotions. This aesthetic of anime, games, and internet memes is more about bright colors and direct, intense displays of vibrant emotions. Almost the exact opposite of goth.
I would call it something like "proleanime" or "e-prole." They're not pretentious, they don't want to hide behind many layers of irony, and they're not educated enough to even understand postmodernism. They want something simple and affordable which they can enjoy, heavily based online since that's where they spend their time. Also, they want to express their sexuality free from the constraints of modern feminism, which is often "performatively" sex-positive but "practically" sex-negative for anyone who isn't gay or trans. And sure, some of them are obese or ugly because lots of people are, but some of them are traditionally attractive too (like the girls who get super into cosplay). It's a big tent of people who want to express sexuality and don't have a good venue for it in today's society! So while I'm not part of this group myself, I do support it.
Also I think maybe older people have the idea that anime is more high-brow than it is? We got this small subset of poorly translated anime films in the 90s, plus everything from Studio Ghibli, and thought it should be some high-class artistic statement because we didn't understand it. But when you watch the majority of mainstream anime with proper translations, you quickly realize how low-brow and fanservice-heavy it is. Nothing wrong with that, let people enjoy themselves, it's just a very different aesthetic than you normally expect from people who watch foreign media with subtitles.
BahRamYou
6d ago
That's hardly a small-scale question. Predicting any financial market is hard, and silver/gold (especially silver) is one of the most volatile of all! Volatility levels for both are absolutely insane right now.
My personal opinion is that gold is more or less rational now. Much higher than it was a year ago, less than it was a week ago, roughly balanced by high debt levels and falling confidence in things like bitcoin and treasury bonds. Silver I think is still overpriced (it's "the poor mans gold" for people who want to speculate but can't afford gold), so I have a small bear position against silver right now, selling calls to take advantage of its crazy volatility making options expensive. But obviously nothing is guaranteed and I could be wildly wrong.
BahRamYou
7d ago
Depends on which "we" you're talking about.
"We" meaning urban white-collar folks in places like southern California, who already own EVs with high quality roads and charging infrastructure? Yeah, they can probably make it work, and they'll see a nice benefit from less air pollution.
But for people in rural areas, small islands, or especially in 3rd world countries? That's going to be rough. It's not just a matter of producing enough energy, it's getting it where you need it. A lot of these people have no power grid (or a highly unreliable one), no engineers that can maintain an EV, and no one coming to help them if they suffer rough weather or an extended blackout. For that, the ability to store up "energy on demand" in a simple can of gas or propane tank, is absolutely necessary. The heat that it generates is also just as important as the electricity.
Ironically, a lot of these people are also early adaptors of solar, since it works well in a small off-grid capacity. You can use a solar panel to charge lights, computers, cell phones, etc during the day, then at night you either go to sleep or burn some propane when you need to. They can also use a simple EV for short range trips that they can charge from home, while also using gas for longer trips. It's a very practical solution to save money and get more independance while still having that oil when they really need it. But forcing these people to go "100% renewables, 0 fossil fuels" would be impossible, and lead to a lot of resistance from some of the best solar advocates.
BahRamYou
9d ago
OK, but in that case the professor is responding to simple yes/no questions or giving permission/orders. The student is writing a lot because he's nervous about offending his professor, not because he's putting a lot of thought into the ideas. The professor can still write long research papers though.
In this case, they're talking about fairly high-level stuff and giving opinions, but still writing as if they're a 3rd grader who needs ritalin. You can see he does put in effort when he wants to be polite ("I have decided to resign my position effective immediately with BG3 and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. I have not come to this decision quickly or without a great deal of thought"). But then he writes shit like: "on a different note=C2 , you have encouraged me to look at data , no holds barred. =A0 mortgages. inequalities . opportunities" wtf is this supposed to mean? I mean I know what he's implying, but the way he writes this is just garbage brainrot. Yeah, "look at data," brilliant advice there, I'm sure no one else has ever tried that, glad he could spare his valuable time to write that out, but obviously his time is far too valuable to bother specifying which data or what he's supposed to make of it. That doesn't read to me like a brilliant guy who's pressed for time, it reads like a guy who's drugged out of his mind and barely able to write anything at all, while desparately trying to sound smarter than he really is.
BahRamYou
10d ago
Except that stock returns are also juiced by inflation- something like 7% plus inflation for the S&P500. Admittedly there's extra variance, but it really is a significantly better return than what you'd get from paying off a mortgage, especially averaged out over 30 years. And you've got the option to refinance to a lower rate (plus take out money!) any time you want.
BahRamYou
10d ago
To make sense of mortgages, you really have to take into account inflation and the time value of money. Yes, it pays off a lot faster when you pay a little extra. But in inflation-adjusted terms, it decreases even without you paying any principal at all. And then you can put the extra payments into an investment that earns more than the mortgage rate.
I'm apparently one of the few people on Earth that thinks Trump's 50-year mortgage idea could actually be a good idea...
It seems like the "non credible accusors" thing is a recurring theme in these files, and might explain why so much of them is still redacted. What are they supposed to do if some anonymous source makes up a horrifying claim about a famous person, with absolutely no evidence? They'll record it, of course, but they can't really prosecute the person unless someone else comes up with actual evidence, or at least is willing to give testimony. Releasing this sort of "anonymous rumor" is just tarnishing someone's reputation for no good reason. So it's redacted.
BahRamYou
11d ago
BahRamYou
11d ago
Unfortunately that's the mad logic of war. We must enforce discipline to force our side to fight together at maximum strength. Anyone who dares to criticize our side, even if it's true (especially if it's true!) is either an idiot who needs reeducation, or a traitor to be eliminated. The neutrals will be seized for their resources. Those who just want to grill will end up on the menu!
BahRamYou
12d ago
Maybe, but the history of conscription means that you do have a core population that have trained to go to war, visualised what it would be like, and have been given the confidence that only military service can give re: doing your part. I don't think the ROC politicians would roll over without a legitimate blockade, or buildings being blown up.
This cartoon is what made me worry that Taiwan's conscription is... not really all it should be. (translation: "what i thought it would be, what it was") Like, it's basically just an excuse for their local government to get cheap labor to do stuff like cutting grass. Maybe I'm getting influenced too much by a stupid internet meme, but I certainly get the impression that Taiwan really doesn't have a strong military culture.
BahRamYou
12d ago
He definitely is a blowhard, and it sounds like you know more than him about that specific issue or missile ranges in Ukraine. I don't expect anyone to be right all the time, I just thought it was a good point about what "purges" mean in the PRC.
BahRamYou
12d ago
I've always thought that their strategy wouldn't be to do an outright invasion, but just to do a massive show of force and hope Taiwan surrenders.
To start, they could take some of the small Taiwan-controlled island like Kinmen which would be very easy. Make a big show of sending overwhelming force, but also being peaceful and gentle in the occupation.
Then, make the sea around Taiwan dangerous. Declare it a "no-go" zone, and attack all commercial ships that go there. Even if they can't do a full blockade, they just have to make it dangerous enough that normal commercial ships don't want to go there.
Make regular, obvious flyers of Taiwan. Don't actually attack anything, just show off the air force. Make a few vague threats about nuclear weapons without any specific details.
Would this make Taiwan surrender? I have no idea. My impression is that they really don't want to be a part of the PRC, but they're also not a very militaristic country. They've got a lot of old people, and a lot of computer engineers, but not too many bloodthirsty military types. A few years of this might be enough to convince them to just give in, especially if they were promised special treatment.
On the other hand, there's an argument that the CCP and PLA secretly like the situation as it is. Taiwan gives them a great excuse to make bold nationalistic claims and pump up military spending, but without the necessity of actually fighting a war. Losing that war would be disastrous, and it's not even clear that winning would really give them anything. It's not the 90s anymore when Taiwan was 100x richer than the mainland, the mainland economy is actually quite decent now and continuing to grow. So I suspect that this is just meaningless rhetoric, like how North Korea periodically threatens to destroy Seoul and Washington.
I just thought it's odd that the man was shot 3 times at point blank range at survived, and i'm trying to think of an explanation. But I admitted that I'm biased because I've been reading spy thrillers recently. I'm really not making a strong claim here about anything, I just thought it was an odd story. Whats the point of Ukrainian secret services shooting some random general in Moscow?
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