BayesWatch
5mo ago
I think that the prediction markets might be pricing in things like 3rd parties, which a Trump vs Biden poll doesn't account for.
BayesWatch
8mo ago
Did the FBI itself actually lie, or was it people associated with the FBI?
BayesWatch
1yr ago
"the Goblins are an anti-Semitic trope"
There really might be something off about the Goblins. Watching the movies now it's impossible not to see in the movies. My inclination is to say that it was chance. Something totally unintentional that looks obvious once it's been framed as an antisemitic trope. But by God it looks like an Antisemitic trope. It's literally a race of hook nosed bankers that hoard piles of gold and treasure, they even look and dress like antisemitic caricatures. Their uniform is literally black suits and white shirts. I mean, my first inclination is to say that its a coincidence but at the same time, that is a pretty freaking big coincidence.
Not everyone who sees a problem with the Goblins is acting on bad faith. It's not an ipso facto excuse to justify the actual reasons that you don't like her. The depiction of the goblins in the series really is strange.
BayesWatch
3mo ago
Darwin. You're back! Good to have you!
BayesWatch
5mo ago
The point being argued is whether or not Israel has been seeking a ceasefire - the "mowing the grass" term refers to them accepting a policy that requires going in and doing that every few years.
In response to new escalations. They they make a new ceasefire. Hamas defects. Defection escalates until they mow the grass again. Repeat the cycle. Which is the point. This cease fire, like all cease fires, would be followed by Hamas defection and escalation until they have to go in again.
BayesWatch
5mo ago
Trump AG prosecute Obama, Biden,Hilary, Fauci etc.. Also people who criticize him. People get violent. Atmosphere of fear, people are afraid that one wrong move will fracture the republic (or try to make that move because it feels virtuous given that your side is right).
Replace generals with Trump loyalists? That doesn't get you all the way there, but it helps. Then you have a choice between an internal military coup to get rid of the Trump loyalists at the top, and maybe they say that it's better to have another term of Trump than to destroy the Republic; they might be right.
You could see how they would think it's reasonable. The first term didn't count because the deep state interfered, and this makes some kind of internal sense, so this would be his first real full term, or maybe the next one, because he will need to use this one to eradicate the deep state.
Ya, I have a hard time seeing any of this happening.
BayesWatch
5mo ago
But that has nothing to do with Turkey bacon, which is fine.
BayesWatch
1yr ago
Did I miss something? When and why did we start calling Jews "(((Triple Parentheses)))"?
BayesWatch
1yr ago
Not to mention taxing consumption instead of income incentivizes people not to buy a ton of random shit which a lot of our economy is based on.
Why do you think buying random things is a bad thing for an economy?
Hold up. I'm lost. While I'm sure that there are still mass graves, the bodies were generally burnt in the crematoriums. Am I mistaken on that front.
That isn't to say that there aren't mass graves or anything. However, is it not well known that the bodies were put into crematoriums?
Shouldn't you be challenging the claim that there were in fact crematoriums?
And I'm not undercutting you here. I want to get on the same page. Are you claiming that there was no explicit documentation related to death camps (save "coded" documents)?
Do you meant that Hitler himself never signed such explicit documents himself?
BayesWatch
1yr ago
Putin can lose the war regardless of his domestic interests, because Putin's domestic political needs aren't what determines military success. No one 'chooses' to win a conflict in order to win election.
That is unless ones survival is contingent upon winning AND there is no question that you do in actuality have the ability to win the war. What determines the military success is Russia's risk aversion towards escalation, and if put in a situation, where Putin thinks that it is worth it for HIMSELF that Russia should risk escalation by making the choice to win (which they obviously can), the the entire world is at risk.
That is absurd. He was making more money than he ever had before, in the months preceding his cancelation he made up the majority of online sales on Adidas' website. The world was his oyster, he had reached the greatest financial success of his life, surpassed all his peers, and the value of his company was still sky rocketing.
Old rappers are not going on tour, unlike old rockers.
Tour? You do realize that he was now a billionaire designer, yes? Who cares about going on tour? Kanye had one of the most devoted fan bases, and he can and did go on tour, but he now a fashion brand, who happened to rap as a side job. Rhianna, another artist turned billionaire fashion label, hasn't performed in 10 years. It doesn't matter. They don't have to do that kind of stuff any more.
Then he lost billions of dollars in a single week, and if you think that it was part of some 3D chess move and not just bad impulse control then I don't know what to tell you.
BayesWatch
1yr ago
severely hampered by a bad but IP mandated ruleset and meaningful lack of content compared to the book/movie story games
How so?
BayesWatch
1yr ago
He's not talking about Ren Tech, he's talking specifically about Ren Tech's medallion fund. It's only open to employees.
BayesWatch
1yr ago
a decapitation strike on Russia's launch capabilities has already happened
???
Was this on the old subreddit? I can remember a few. Were people saying that markets couldn't possibly be so inefficient?
BayesWatch
5mo ago
Is your model that Israel is trying to kill as many people as possible? The world would look different if that were the case. There would be a lot more dead people.
BayesWatch
11mo ago
walking back and forth yelling at nobody in particular that he was hungry and thirsty and that he didn't care if he went to prison and he was ready to die. He then aggressively threw his jacket onto the floor.
What, do you think, would have happened next. This seems to be leading up to a certain kind of action, no?
BayesWatch
5mo ago
Bezos, Musk, etc. have fortunes but that money is not making its way to me.
To the degree that they have cash it is making it's way to you about as much as any other cash, as for their wealth, that they created, they did so by creating lots of utility. I can order something online and have it the very same day. That's awesome. Thanks Jeff. You deserve all that money for doing something so awesome. You earned it! Thanks Elon for the cool cars and internet!
These are things people want (we know this because people pay them for these things).
BayesWatch
5mo ago
Well, there is always the verboten topic of the "meme sex". Probably going to get modded again for even uttering the words.
Meme sex? What does that mean? That one sex is more susceptible to cultural programming?
BayesWatch
5mo ago
After Israel's war with Hamas is over are they going to deliver a bunch of resources to Gaza and the West Bank to help the development of a peaceful Palestinian state? I am skeptical!
If they thought that this was a viable possibility? Maybe. I think that the hatred is a bit more entrenched than it was in Japan/Germany.
I mean, it's hard to imagine that they won't use resources to try to destroy Israel. When given a choice they have show that that is exactly what they will do.
BayesWatch
6mo ago
What if they were launched from a bomber?
BayesWatch
6mo ago
Can you explain? Why couldn't a conventionally armed F-16, F-35, or missile without a nuclear warhead reach Iran?
BayesWatch
6mo ago
The most upvoted questions seem to be something like, "why didn't Lex ask about the 2 billion.", which is funny because he does ask about it. Jared seemed reasonably thoughtful. Over the course of Trump's presidency we saw Jared's reputation change from wonder-kid to village idiot. I don't know if he is a wonder kid, but he certainly isn't the village idiot.
When they go in every couple of years and collapse tunnels, destroy weapons depots, and take out terrorists? What follows from that? Should they not do that?
More options
Context Copy link