BayesWatch
4mo ago
But that has nothing to do with Turkey bacon, which is fine.
BayesWatch
4mo ago
Bezos, Musk, etc. have fortunes but that money is not making its way to me.
To the degree that they have cash it is making it's way to you about as much as any other cash, as for their wealth, that they created, they did so by creating lots of utility. I can order something online and have it the very same day. That's awesome. Thanks Jeff. You deserve all that money for doing something so awesome. You earned it! Thanks Elon for the cool cars and internet!
These are things people want (we know this because people pay them for these things).
BayesWatch
4mo ago
That's the first coherent 5D chess explanation for what's going on at Twitter.
BayesWatch
4mo ago
Trump AG prosecute Obama, Biden,Hilary, Fauci etc.. Also people who criticize him. People get violent. Atmosphere of fear, people are afraid that one wrong move will fracture the republic (or try to make that move because it feels virtuous given that your side is right).
Replace generals with Trump loyalists? That doesn't get you all the way there, but it helps. Then you have a choice between an internal military coup to get rid of the Trump loyalists at the top, and maybe they say that it's better to have another term of Trump than to destroy the Republic; they might be right.
You could see how they would think it's reasonable. The first term didn't count because the deep state interfered, and this makes some kind of internal sense, so this would be his first real full term, or maybe the next one, because he will need to use this one to eradicate the deep state.
Ya, I have a hard time seeing any of this happening.
BayesWatch
5mo ago
Well, there is always the verboten topic of the "meme sex". Probably going to get modded again for even uttering the words.
Meme sex? What does that mean? That one sex is more susceptible to cultural programming?
BayesWatch
5mo ago
Is your model that Israel is trying to kill as many people as possible? The world would look different if that were the case. There would be a lot more dead people.
BayesWatch
5mo ago
The point being argued is whether or not Israel has been seeking a ceasefire - the "mowing the grass" term refers to them accepting a policy that requires going in and doing that every few years.
In response to new escalations. They they make a new ceasefire. Hamas defects. Defection escalates until they mow the grass again. Repeat the cycle. Which is the point. This cease fire, like all cease fires, would be followed by Hamas defection and escalation until they have to go in again.
BayesWatch
5mo ago
"mowing the grass"
When they go in every couple of years and collapse tunnels, destroy weapons depots, and take out terrorists? What follows from that? Should they not do that?
BayesWatch
5mo ago
After Israel's war with Hamas is over are they going to deliver a bunch of resources to Gaza and the West Bank to help the development of a peaceful Palestinian state? I am skeptical!
If they thought that this was a viable possibility? Maybe. I think that the hatred is a bit more entrenched than it was in Japan/Germany.
I mean, it's hard to imagine that they won't use resources to try to destroy Israel. When given a choice they have show that that is exactly what they will do.
BayesWatch
5mo ago
ex-Presidents are not held to the same standards as the common man
Of course they aren't, this is priced in, it's standard wisdom. We try not to prosecute the previous president so as not to become a banana republic.
BayesWatch
5mo ago
I think that the prediction markets might be pricing in things like 3rd parties, which a Trump vs Biden poll doesn't account for.
BayesWatch
5mo ago
Eisman from the Big Short
YU is the equivalent of the Jewish state school, and it is far better than the meadian state school.
BayesWatch
5mo ago
Why?
BayesWatch
5mo ago
I don't like baseball, but I do like well crafted videos, and the you tube channel "baseball doesn't exist" has a lots of good videos that just so happen to be about baseball. So that might make a good entry point!
BayesWatch
5mo ago
A rags to riches story of small backwater with big population and high birth rates has happened couple of times already.
Sure, but which of those cases ended up "substantially richer than Israel ". Israel is already one of the richest countries in the world. A random countries can't just up and make themselves richer than that because they decide to. The vast majority of functioning western countries are far poorer than Israel. You can't just decide that you want to be richer and make it so.
BayesWatch
6mo ago
Fatah?
BayesWatch
6mo ago
What if they were launched from a bomber?
BayesWatch
6mo ago
Can you explain? Why couldn't a conventionally armed F-16, F-35, or missile without a nuclear warhead reach Iran?
BayesWatch
6mo ago
Iran has medium range missiles capable of hitting Israel, but how many they have is unknown. Israel’s options for physical retaliation would be slim, but in many ways that reduces the risk that Iran acts overly aggressive out of fear.
Supposing that Iran did launch missals, would Israel be able to distinguish between conventional missals and WMDs (be they chemical and nuclear)?
And given that they wouldn't know the content of the missals launched by Iran, Israel would have to assume that they might be WMDs. By this I mean to say that a rockets from Iran to Israel might have the same problem as rockets launched from Russia to the USA, it would risk nuclear escalation given that you cannot determine the content of the missals, and given that there is a possibility that the missals are in fact a nuclear first strike.
Given the risk of escalation it it would seem unlikely that Iran proper directly attacks Israel.
BayesWatch
6mo ago
The most upvoted questions seem to be something like, "why didn't Lex ask about the 2 billion.", which is funny because he does ask about it. Jared seemed reasonably thoughtful. Over the course of Trump's presidency we saw Jared's reputation change from wonder-kid to village idiot. I don't know if he is a wonder kid, but he certainly isn't the village idiot.
BayesWatch
7mo ago
Drudge's post debate poll had Christie coming in second after Ramaswamy as the winner of the debate. So a far right news base, at least the over 50,000 of them that participated so far, seem to think Christie did a good job. Not as good as Ramaswamy, but a bit better than Haley and Desantis, and way better than anyone else.
BayesWatch
8mo ago
For what it's worth, he said he won't be anyones VIP. He says that he's doing this to be in charge and that he doesn't want to answer to anyone.
BayesWatch
8mo ago
Did the FBI itself actually lie, or was it people associated with the FBI?
BayesWatch
11mo ago
walking back and forth yelling at nobody in particular that he was hungry and thirsty and that he didn't care if he went to prison and he was ready to die. He then aggressively threw his jacket onto the floor.
What, do you think, would have happened next. This seems to be leading up to a certain kind of action, no?
Darwin. You're back! Good to have you!
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