This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Iran has launched hypersonic missiles into the center of Tel Aviv.
This is shocking to me - I knew things were heating up in the Middle East, but now Iran is officially firing back at Israel. To be frank I was kind of not paying attention to the situation much until this happened, but seems like a major inflection point.
What are the implications of this for further war? For nuclear action in the area? Other countries getting invovled?
What are the implications for the U.S. election, and what do you think the U.S. will do in response?
How do we find a way towards peace now that Israel has been bombed in a civilian area?
EDIT: Almost goes without saying, but Iran has officially declared war on Israel.Theory time: Israel is pushing very hard to start a regional war with US involvement before US elections so the next president (the one that won’t be a zombie presumably) has no choice but to continue.
This missile attack is a dramatic warning that Iran can decimate oil production and other regime critical infrastructure in every single American ally in the region. Iranian leadership has been very consistently acting like they are aware that they won’t survive a war with the US.
Doesn't really seem to bear out. It mostly seems like Israel has decided "today's the day!" Factors have converged to mean that world-wide support for Israel is likely at its peak, at least for the next 20 odd years. The Booomers and their record-highs of not hating Jews are dying off, Europe is Islamicizing with shocking rapidity, and the American left have adopted identity politics that mean Israel will never again be as supported as it is today, barring a tectonic shift.
So, if your world-wide support is almost guaranteed to decline over the next 20-40 years, but there are still existential threats to your people's survival, do you (A) keep hoping that a post-WW2 UN-led drum circle kumbaya session will resolve everything, or (B) go balls to the wall and beat the everloving shit out of your enemies to the point where it will take them decades to present a real threat again? This calculus likely took place some time after Oct7, because Oct7 provided Israel with casus belli nobody rational could gainsay, and yet Western leftists tried to gainsay it! Articles about how "Israel shouldn't invade Gaza over this" or "won't someone think of the poor Palestinians" were coming out on October 8th. If you're Israeli, how can you not see that and think "right, fuck it, time to settle this shit."
Is Israel trying to get America involved? I doubt it. Israel doesn't want American boots on the ground. Other than some coupons at American defense contractors and maybe some air cover against Iranian missile strikes, Israel doesn't really need much American intervention. Which I know will make the resident JooPosters very angry, but it's true. Israel borders six countries. Or four countries and two territories. Whichever. In no particular order these six are; Egypt, Jordan, Syria, The West Bank, Gaza and Lebanon. Egypt is perfectly content with the status quo. Jordan is perfectly content with the status quo. Syria is a war-torn shit-hole that couldn't invade a wet paper bag much less a foreign country. The West Bank is very firmly under Israel's thumb and will not be getting out from under it any time soon. Gaza has been turned into so much rubble, and Hamas' leadership gutted. Which only leaves... Lebanon. By which I mean Hezbollah. The Lebanese government basically doesn't exist. It definitely doesn't exist in Southern Lebanon, which is where Hezbollah (or Hizbollah, or Hiz'b'allah, or whatever spelling you want to use) operates. In short order Israel has destroyed Hezbollah's leadership, crippled their ability to coordinate, and put thousands of their fighters in the hospital. Without so much as exposing a single IDF reservist to danger.
Will the invasion of South Lebanon go well? Maybe, maybe not. But the build-up sure as shit hasn't gone well for Hezbollah.
They want US bunker busters sufficient to get at Iranian reactors under mountains. That is the existential threat. The only way Israel can get to the reactors is to use nukes. Israel's terminal value is preventing Iran from getting nukes. Forcing the US's hand is the only plausible way this happens. To this end they are incentivized to continue escalating in the hope that US has to join, and attack Iran itself, at least from the air.
But Israel already has American bunker-busters, and the F-35s to bypass Iranian air defense. If Israel really wanted to drop a bomb on an Iranian reactor, they could.
I believe that there are degrees of bunker buster missiles. What they have isn't sufficient to get through the mountains near Tehran.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link