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1mo ago
Plenty of success stories could still be considered a nerdsnipe in terms of personal tradeoffs.
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1mo ago
It's a job and he's a mechanical engineer so it's likely gonna be fairly dry stuff regardless
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1mo ago
He downgraded massively for his Masters after getting into Caltech for his undergrad which seems indicative of some sort of derailment
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1mo ago
Yeah even the obstinate contrarian kinda-Left posters in here would still get Nazi labels from blue sky
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1mo ago
Find a project of massive personal significance and autistically fixate on it whilst allowing other matters to rot
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1mo ago
He was doing part time working for a tutoring company not actually formally teaching perse. Guy just looks moderately functioning autistic, probably nerdsniped himself with his video game idea and a bit too spectrumatic to hold a regular job. Massive downgrade between masters and undergrad probably related to that/wanting to do a masters in video game development.
In another life he'd have been here on the Motte with his people
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1mo ago
Random nutjob activity == massive organized protest influenced by a plethora of different groups and interests. Unless you're saying the Jan 6 bombs just came from some amateur arson enthusiast who had a tragic schedule clash
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1mo ago
From looking at his indie game he's most likely bigly autistic. Might explain the lack of real professional success despite decent academics and what should be favorable demographic for hiring
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1mo ago
Don't think he ever entered direct beligerance with most people. Cuban expats sure
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1mo ago
Trying to equivocate 'Trump intentionally got shot in the ear since he's a showman' with 'massive sprawling mess potentially had glowies involved' is a bit of a stretch
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1mo ago
I feel like for massive geopolitical happenings worth discussing without a particular lede
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1mo ago
Exactly. To me the negatives of other people having guns far outweigh the positive of being personally armed
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1mo ago
The gun being in the dialogue tree means the whole escalation path of society is way messier and more violent
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1mo ago
Healthcare growing the economy? The majority of recent innovation is targeted at extending the retirement period at massive expense
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1mo ago
I mean my point is that prediction markets aren't even a straddle. There's some marketing spend around novel politics markets but they're barely a blip commercially
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1mo ago
The issue is that the exotic markets are a small and dwindling portion of turnover
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1mo ago
Prediction markets are 95% sports contracts and that split will go higher especially in a post Trump universe
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1mo ago
They added fees lately and they can be effectively a lot wider than sportsbooks
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1mo ago
Especially when the supply of organized right wing extremists isn't that large and you can get informants to say essentially anything
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1mo ago
I'd say the latter but it still feels pretty iffy if a group that's ostensibly trying to resolve issue A is funding issue A to make it look bigger than it actually is. If a firefighting charity is running around throwing petrol on things I think it's reasonable to ask questions
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1mo ago
I went to high school with probably the most prolific Neonazi in Australia and I'd be willing to bet money that he's been flipped along the way. He immediately joined the army out of high school, took a discharge after 6 months then becomes the biggest name in the movement within a year.
I don't doubt that he's authentically racist but the lack of real consequences and some personal links I know he has are sufficient for me to be highly skeptical he's not astroturfed.
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1mo ago
Yeah but the end state here is this also getting brutally regulated. It's how this industry works. It's just a shame that a lot of people are arguing in favor of prediction markets on vague 'I'm a rationalist and like the idea of superforecasters' grounds when they don't get that it's actually a machine for 18 year olds and Texans betting Football
Betting public usually gigantically pro Trump for the big key markets. Trump beating Hilary was probably the worst pnl day for sportsbooks in a lot of places since it was a 8 to 1 shot with more than 50% of the handle
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