Butlerian
Not robot-ist just don't like 'em
6d ago
I don't think there's any set of evidence short of the actual AI singularity that would cause a doomer to sit back and think "huh, guess I was wrong about AI risk".
Well that certainly wouldn’t make me think I was wrong to be a doomer. Having learned this trick from Nate Silver and his “My model predicted a 90% chance of a Hillary victory and a 10% chance of a Trump victory, Trump won therefore I was right”, we have “There was a 99% chance of unfriendly ASI and we lucked out and got the 1% friendly ASI, I was still right that DOOM was far more likely”.
Well that certainly wouldn’t make me think I was wrong to be a doomer. Having learned this trick from Nate Silver and his “My model predicted a 90% chance of a Hillary victory and a 10% chance of a Trump victory, Trump won therefore I was right”, we have “There was a 99% chance of unfriendly ASI and we lucked out and got the 1% friendly ASI, I was still right that DOOM was far more likely”.
More options
Context Copy link