CAPSLOCK_CTRL
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User ID: 546
CAPSLOCK_CTRL
24d ago
this is entirely irrelevant unless those other countries (or rather the people in those countries) are aware of those tariffs. which, I assure you, they aren't.
from the perspective of europe, trump is throwing up tariffs out of nowhere.
CAPSLOCK_CTRL
24d ago
feels a little weird to have my very first post here after a decade or whatever of reading scott, subreddit, and then here be a sort of swipy rant, but here goes:
the main "danger" to this whole affair is that trump has managed to unite the left, right and center in every single country that isn't the US in being all-out "fuck those assholes, we're doing it live".
in theory, the rational response to US tariffs would be to enact no tariffs at all and to ask trump to pretty please be so nice as to remove his tariffs too.
in practice, this would be political suicide everywhere.
the only play is to throw up a huge middle finger to the US to widespread public applause and to double down.
whether or not that hurts the country that does it more than the US is completely irrelevant. any politician that doesn't go down the 'tard road won't be a politician for long.
any supposed analysis that doesn't take this pretty obvious reality into account is worthless.
that sounds cute but that's all this is.
if america ditches their empire, yes, US equities will suffer. but
a) will that actually happen? currently I still assume trump will be reigned in by smarter people.
b) even if it does happen, the US will most certainly defend stock prices for the benefit of old people who vote. so... what's the timeframe of that short?
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